Think Plaid. Think London?

There's new evidence that a catch-all "London" has replaced "slap in the face" and "snub to Wales" as Plaid Cymru's campaign slogan of choice.

A press release from Hywel Williams MP uses the L-word no fewer than seven times, more often than the word "Wales".

Google "Plaid Cymru" and "London" and you get far more suggestions than you would googling "slap in the face" or "snub to Wales". They really are so last decade.

The strategy appears to be to try to convince voters that everything done at Westminster is purely for the good of rich people in the UK capital, a nationalist version of class war.

The Hywel Williams press release is peppered with references to "Labour in London", "cuts imposed on the Welsh Government by London" and "bosses in London".

Another press release from the party, announcing their line-up of candidates, arrived this afternoon with no fewer than five L-words in its three paragraphs.

Plaid's honorary president, Dafydd Wigley, once upset a few people by referring to "gin-soaked Surrey" (to compare, replace Surrey with any Welsh location and stand by your inbox). Plaid Cymru insist they are not anti-English - "some of my best friends are English" as Elfyn Llwyd told the BBC News Channel recently.

To demonstrate the L-word strategy is not an anti-English pitch, Hywel Williams highlights another area of the UK where public spending is higher than Plaid would apparently like.

"Public spending in England and Scotland outstripped Wales during the ‘good times’ while, under the Barnett Formula, Wales loses out on hundreds of millions of pounds a year."

Scottish public spending outstripping Wales? The SNP, who form part of a single parliamentary party at Westminster, will be thrilled with this contribution to their combined negotiating strength should there be a hung Parliament.

Time's Up

I could feel the wings of history on my tweets. The last Welsh Question Time at Westminster before the general election featured farewell appearances from MPs on both sides of the chamber.

If it was to be Peter Hain's last Question Time appearance as Secretary of State then he could not have wished for some softer questions to smooth him on his way.

Tom Watson kicked off with a penetrating "Can my right honourable friend assure me that he has no plans to axe or cut tax credits?" which prompted Peter Hain to claim there is a Tory "sword of Damocles" hanging over tax credits.

Sian James put him on the spot with her follow-up: "Can the Minister tell me how many families in total have benefited through the policies of this Government on this important issue?"

Mr Hain looked pleased although hardly surprised to be asked a question that allowed him to claim that the Conservatives would axe free school breakfasts.

Betty Williams wanted to know whether he agreed with her constituents that "the tax credit system is certainly not a gimmick?" Tough one, that.

Tory Peter Bone, late of Islwyn but now of Wellingborough, wanted to know how many constituents Mr Hain had had in tears in his office because of the tax credit system.

Mr Hain told him there were people in his constituency office in tears about the threat to their tax credits, although the sight of people in Neath weeping over an opposition party's manifesto is as yet uncorroborated.

There was barely a dry eye in the House as Ministers paid tribute to three Labour MPs taking part in their last Question Time - Betty Williams, Martyn Jones and Don Touhig.

Plaid Cymru's Adam Price bowed out with: "Why is it right for an ENGLISH Minister to sit as judge and jury on the question of bilingual juries?"

The shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan accused Peter Hain of delaying preparations for a referendum on Welsh Assembly powers until it could be taken by an in-coming Conservative government?

It may be a rare example of an in-coming Minister hoping that Labour will take a decision before it arrives in office, allowing Cheryl Gillan to remain on the fence ("neutral") on an issue that divides her party more than most.

Peter Hain told MPs: "This is a matter for consideration after the general election. All the parties agree with that."

And that was more or less that. Historic or otherwise, it was probably an accurate rehearsal of the campaign to come.

London calling

As any pantomime-goer will tell you, the streets of London are paved with gold.

Some politicians will tell you that gold grows on trees across the English capital and is then handed on a plate to millionaire City bankers thanks to the collusion of London politicians in London-based parties, such as those well-known cockneys Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling.

A press release from Plaid Cymru MP Hywel Williams on the 2012 Olympics arrives today: "London politicians have admitted that it is a scam to use public money to regenerate one of Europe's richest cities."

He may have a point about Olympics spending not benefitting Wales, but is London really one of Europe's richest cities? It certainly contains some of Europe's richest people, but unemployment here is higher than in Wales (9.1 per cent compared to 8.6 per cent) and no fewer than 41 per cent of London's children are growing up in poverty after the UK capital's huge housing costs are considered.

The average price of a London property - £427,987 - may be more than twice as great as that of its Welsh equivalent - £161,576 - but Londoners still have to find a way to pay for their homes.

London's Evening Standard newspaper has just devoted a full week to an in-depth examination of the issue of poverty on its doorstep in a city home to some of the greatest inequalities you will find anywhere.

Incidentally, if, as Sir Jon Shortridge suggests, Wales is poor because it has been governed from England for too long, how do we explain economic fortunes in the poorest London boroughs?

London Mayor Boris Johnson gave a subdued (for him) interview to Dragon's Eye last week, warning against cutting spending in London, but it was enough to spark criticism from Plaid Cymru AM Chris Franks:

"These comments by Boris Johnson show that the Tories simply don’t care that Wales is being severely underfunded. They have consistently refused to say what they would do about our dire funding situation, and now it turns out they want to give more money to the richest region of England."


"London" is an easy label to prefix to any press release that aims to stoke up resentment among Welsh voters, particularly when included alongside "bankers" and other pantomime villains. It has subtly begun to replace "snub" and "slap in the face" in party propaganda.
 
Perhaps it's a delayed response to the former London Mayor Ken Livingstone's view of another major project (of questionable benefit to Wales): "We need Crossrail to keep London's economy ticking over so that we can continue to pay for the Scottish to live the lifestyle to which they are accustomed."
 
Statistics on London poverty may bore the pants off you if you live in Wales - probably if you live in London too - but they illustrate just how difficult it will be to reform the way the public spending cake is divided up.
 
David Cameron has been hinting of changes to the Barnett formula, which decides 53 per cent of public spending in Wales, for some time but always stops shy of promising action.
 
Two years ago, he told The Herald, Glasgow the formula was coming to the end of its days but he was wary of stoking an English grievance about it: "I want this to happen in a consensual, sensible, non-inflammatory way and that's why I've been so reticent about it."
 
For all the hints of commissions to look at it under a Tory government, he warned in last Friday's Western Mail that there was no pot of gold that would follow the scrapping of the formula.
 
Tweaking the formula to benefit Wales could deliver political benefits at relatively little financial cost for a Conservative UK government.  The Tories could bite the bullet and cut Scottish spending disproportionately as soon as they take office, although that would not sit well with being a "party of the Union".
 
Lord Barnett is a sprightly 86. I wouldn't bet against him out-living his formula.

Biteback bitten by unusual suspect?

Have I made Lord Ashcroft even richer?

This disturbing thought has cost me some sleep since I attended a book launch for Paul Flynn's memoirs, held in the Thatcher Room in Portcullis House.

The Unusual Suspect is published by Biteback Publishing, in which the billionaire deputy Tory chairman has a 25 per cent share.

One consolation, if I have added to his fortune by buying a copy, is that given his promise to give up his "non-dom" status, he will at least pay tax on the profits.

Paul Flynn himself is not not allowing his choice of publisher to influence his views. There is one less than flattering reference to "possibly illegal" donations from Lord Ashcroft in the book. (It was written before the donations were cleared by the Electoral Commission).

There is also this reference to the Ashcroft affair and the Public Administration Select Committee from the Flynn blog: "Why was Ashcroft rejected twice for a peerage? What did Hague promise in order to get minds changed? It is rare for anyone to reject a summons to appear before a Select Committee. Lord Ashcroft has an invitation in the post.

"David Cameron has not buried this ugly episode. The full truth has not yet been prised out of them. So far it's the misty truth, he half-truth and none of the whole truth."

The book launch itself was a jolly affair, despite the clash with a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

On first inspection, The Unusual Suspect is a good read too, despite a couple of potentially embarrassing references to me within its pages.

The book gives an interesting insight into the way political parties sometimes stitch up safe seats for favoured candidates, a manoeuvre that has sometimes involved a peerage for MPs who agree to retire at the last minute.

The Westminster rumour mill this time is that peerages are only guaranteed for those MPs who step down after the election has been called - a timetable that would allow Labour's national executive to select constituency candidates.

Flynn has just turned 75 but you will have a long wait to see Lord Flynn of Newport. He says he's "more angry and enthusiastic" than ever before and is standing in the election.

If you can't stand the heat....

One of the many joys of multi-channel television is that you are never too far away from a showing of the cult food show, Come Dine With Me.

For those of you who may have missed it, the programme involves four or five amateur chefs competing against each other hosting a dinner party for the other contestants. Each competitor then rates the host's performance with the winner winning a £1,000 cash prize.

Having made several celebrity programmes, for charidee, the programme's makers have been trying to put together a political version.

Sadly, one of their potential cast has declined the invitation. CDWM viewers will be deprived of Peter Hain's culinary skills, not to mention a glimpse into what is already quite a well-known kitchen.

Aides decided the Welsh Secretary was too busy to clear his diary for the week, denying us a glimpse of Hain cuisine (101 ways with Ryvita?).

Older viewers will remember the Neath MP's interview with Aga Magazsine: "At first I was a bit sceptical about the Aga.

"I thought it was a great big lump. But now I actually think it's fantastic. We found food cooked on the electric cooker tasted very second class."

There's no news yet on whether other politicians are prepared to risk getting their fingers burnt.

Although the political version would have been for charidee, the e-mail to potential participants apparently mentioned a fee of £3,000 per amateur chef. Worth keeping an eye on the Commons Register of Members' Interests to see how takes up the invitation.

Five facts from the Welsh Tory conference

1. Party members gave a standing ovation to a video - before it started. I think they were expecting DC in person.

2. The Tories would rename the Wales Office the Welsh Office - back to the future and a spending commitment unless they keep the existing signs on Gwydyr House.

3. David Cameron's hailed a war on waste as the party's European group offered all free mints, chocolate and writing pads bearing the Tory logo.

4. Welsh Tory MEP Kay Swinburne is the Queen of Hearts in a pack of cards featuring Euro-MPs - another freebie on offer.

5. The big question for the media - are chairmen Eric Pickles and Lyndon Jones twins or Russian dolls? Open up Eric and find Lyndon inside. Eric says they are the Mitchell brothers of British politics - which makes Cheryl Gillan Peggy Mitchell.

Reluctant MPs offered escape route

MPs who don't turn up for committee meetings could get the boot under plans endorsed by several select committee chairs.

Hywel Francis, who chairs the Welsh affairs committee, has put his name to a move that would allow chairs to dump members who turn up for fewer than 60 per cent of meetings.

Should this be implemented, fewer than half of the current Welsh affairs membership would survive. David Davies, Nia Griffith, Sian James, Martyn Jones, Albert Owen and Mark Pritchard would be made to walk the plank.

Some of these already sit on more than one committee and might welcome a discharge.

The new barely quorate committee would comprise Hywel Francis, Mark Williams, David Jones, Hywel Williams and Alun Michael.

Of course, any mass cull would possibly be followed by a stampede of MPs eager to join the main committee for holding Welsh Ministers to account here.

Or maybe not. Dr Francis tells me: "Many people are reluctant members. Parties put people on to make up the numbers."

The issue is being discussed by the liaison committee, made up of committee chairs.

Sean White: estate agent & money launderer

You may or may not have read today's Daily Mirror. I will blog properly about this estate agent after sentencing but I hope the case highlights the need for vulnerable people to take care when faced with shysters engaged in doorstep crime and their accomplices. There are some evil people out there.

Gordon Brown celebrates St David's Day

How are you celebrating St David's Day?

The House of Lords has been debating whether March 1 should become a public holiday.

Government spokesman Lord Davies of Oldham, who himself has Welsh roots, deflected calls for a day off on St David's Day:

"The decision is quite clear. The Scots decided they would opt for St Andrew's Day, the Welsh Assembly Government has not made as yet a bid in the present programme for a public holiday for St David's Day. Of course, if such a bid comes forward, we will consider it."

Labour activist Sally Bercow (Mrs Speaker) likes the idea of a day off, but Labour have argued that an extra bank holiday would cost industry dear. It is, as I understand it, still official policy for their coalition partners in Cardiff Bay, Plaid Cymru. Conservatives in the Welsh Assembly present it as party policy between elections but it seldom reaches the status of a manifesto commitment.

Gordon Brown has his own take on what we get up to on St David's Day: "I know that today, from Bangor to Builth Wells and beyond, you will be celebrating your nation and its achievements in many ways - by attending Eisteddfods, dressing your children in national costume or by taking part in parades."

We must look forward to the Prime Minister's take on St Andrew's Day, should he still be in Downing Street by then. In the meantime, I must dash - got to rush home and dress the kids in national costume before the eisteddfod starts.

No spitting please

Handy advice from the Welsh Assembly Government's new welcome pack for newcomers to Wales: "Do not throw litter on the floor, or spit on the floor in public places, if you need to sneeze or blow your nose you should use a tissue."

The Welsh, of course, never, ever throw litter on the floor, even outside a 24-hour McDonald's in Swansea:

The Assembly Government also advises:

"British / Welsh people are generally reserved and well mannered. Neighbours great each other politely saying 'Good Morning / Good Afternoon' or 'Bore Da / Prynhawn Da' in Welsh, and often shake hands. In the UK, people say 'please', 'thank you' and 'excuse me' when in public places, or when receiving or paying for a service."

Boris flies the flag

London Mayor Boris Johnson is flying the dragon from City Hall in London today. He's also due to make the toast to the Welsh in London Dewi Sant at a reception in the Guildhall later.

Rumour has it he may be using some of the Welsh he picked up during his unsuccessful campaign in Clwyd South in 1997. Given that as he put it, he fought Clwyd South and Clwyd South fought back, his vocabulary this evening should be interesting.

We were poor.....but happy

It was interesting to learn from the front page of today's Western Mail that the Welsh Assembly Government is considering measuring the happiness of the nation.

The idea of general well-being rather than pure economic growth as a policy goal has become increasingly fashionable in recent years.

This is partly because although western societies are materially far richer than we were 50 years ago, we are no happier. Indeed, stress and mental illness have often increased.

David Cameron was very keen on the idea, until the global economic crisis intervened to suggest even in the West we no longer live in a post-material world. The Welsh Conservatives have yet to claim credit for converting the Labour/Plaid Assembly Government into Cameroons.

GWB rather than GDP or GVA has obvious attractions to Welsh politicians, whose stated aims to narrow the economic gap with England have, to put it politely, yet to deliver.

Some of the most fascinating political books I've read during the last year have been written on this very subject. I'd recommend (Lord) Richard Layard's Happiness: Lessons from a New Science and Affluenza by Oliver James.

Layard argues that happiness should be a central policy goal and presents evidence that less unequal societies are not just fairer but happier. He calls for redistribution from rich to poor through higher taxes - "We can now show scientifically that an extra pound is worth more in happiness to a poor person than to someone who is richer."

Oliver James attributes the "affluenza" virus - effectively status anxiety - to an obsession with wealth that has left more of us unhappy. He suggests new policy goals, including one or two radical policies designed to get politicians thinking differently.

One of his ideas is that would-be MPs should spend some time looking after children aged under three before going into Parliament.

I'd be very happy to volunteer my two-year-old son for this novel experiment, although I'd probably prime him with a couple of verbal hand grenades to keep the politicians on their toes.

"I want to live in a posh house"

Commons Speaker John Bercow took delivery of some St David's Day daffodils from the children of Ysgol Gymraeg Llundain this morning.

Mr Speaker introduced himself to the children with an informal "hello, I'm John" before taking them on a tour of Speaker's House.

He told BBC Wales he would be wearing a daffodil in the Speaker's chair in the Commons this afternoon - after reading a lesson at the traditional St David's Day service in the chapel in the Commons crypt.

One of the schoolboys was impressed but a tad cheesed off to discover that the three young Bercow children live in Speaker's House. He told his classmates: "It's not fair - I want to live in a posh house".

Brown - I didn't kill Archie Mitchell

Greetings from Swanea, where a Labour conference fringe breakfast on the Barnett formula is barely half an hour away.

In other news, Gordon Brown's shorter-than-usual speech yesterday went down well and, as far as I can tell, he didn't lose his temper with anyone while west of Offa's Dyke.

(Former First Minister Rhodri Morgan says the temper thing is down to the PM not getting enough sleep. Mr Morgan had a decent quip in his conference speech about how while his MP wife is out knocking on doors, he's at home hanging doors.).

There was one reference in the Brown speech to the bullying allegations: "The only thing I haven’t been accused of recently is killing Archie Mitchell in The EastEnders (sic). For the press here: I promise you, I didn’t even lay a finger on him.”

So Gordon Brown is innocent, ok? A nice joke, although only someone who doesn't know much about life in Albert Square would refer to "The EastEnders".

Earlier, the PM dropped in at a bungalow in Llanelli, for a "home visit" - a new campaign device where he gets to meet community activists, who then presumably pass on by word-of-mouth their improved views on the leader.

In Llanelli, those assembled included councillors, someone from the Asda Foundation (Llanelli shoppers are very generous apparently), an expert on breast cancer and a brain surgeon.

It took nine seconds from entering Sharren Davies's conservatory for Mr Brown to bring up Wales's Six Nations defeat against France the previous evening. Don't mention the score - how to enter a room and engulf it in gloom, lesson one.

But the first person with whom he raised the rugby didn't matter at all - he was English. Perhaps Gordon Brown's luck is finally changing.

Must dash - I can smell my Barnett breakfast cooking.

Big Mac and fries to throw - Swansea, Sunday AM

Cole War latest: Ashley flies peacekeeper in

Never let it be said that this blog is not at the cutting edge of popular culture, as Cheryl and Ashley's problems (temporarily) replace the Barnett formula as the number one topic of conversation across the land.

He's eased Labour divisions over devolution in Wales, helped broker a political settlement in Northern Ireland, and made his name trying to bring black and white together in South Africa, so Peter Hain would appear a natural choice to mediate the Cole family's current difficulties.

As an added bonus, the Welsh Secretary's experience facing regular criticism from a woman named Cheryl may also strike a chord with the Chelsea left-back.

Lib Dems - a cock-up, not a conspiracy

Hello. Welcome back. I return refreshed from a half-term break to discover that more tensions have emerged between Liberal Democrats at either end of the M4.

During the past year, Welsh Lib Dems have seen senior party figures at Westminster call for the scrapping of a massive defence investment and try to reduce the number of Welsh MPs by 30 per cent.

Now several senior Lib Dem MPs have signed up to a move to block further devolution to Wales, this time in the area of home education.

A Tory MP, Graham Stuart, tabled an amendment to a new law going through Parliament, an amendment that would have deleted a clause in the Bill that would give the Assembly the power to pass laws on home education in Wales.

Six Lib Dem MPs, including the party's education spokesman, David Laws, signed Mr Stuart's amendment, despite the Lib Dems claiming to be in favour of greater powers for Wales.

Cock-up or conspiracy? Jenny Randerson, the party's education spokeswoman in the Welsh Assembly, says: "My colleagues in Westminster subscribed to this amendment in error and will be removing their names from this Tory amendment. David Laws, the Lib Dem education spokesperson will, during the debate, argue in favour of devolving these powers to Wales.
“The Liberal Democrats remain committed to furthering Welsh devolution and they will vote against this amendment if it is called.”
An easy mistake. Perhaps ordinary voters simply don't understand just how easy it is for politicians to say one thing and then sign up to the opposite. The more charitable explanation is that there was some confusion over whether, having removed English powers from the Bill, you could still include powers for Wales.

Pre-election tension and Gordon's guarantee

You may well have noticed that yesterday's historic vote in Cardiff Bay to allow the people to have a vote on the Welsh Assembly's powers failed to register during Question Time at Westminster today.

I was too busy to notice whether this oversight led to gasps in the public gallery, a gallery still recovering from Sir Paul McCartney's appearance to watch last night's debate on voting systems.

Sir Paul is himself now doubtless composing a ditty to mark the Alternative Vote Referendum - or maybe not.

Perhaps it was the imminence of the general election, but MPs confined themselves to issues such as the economy and jobs rather than constitutional affairs during the 30 minutes they get each month to question the Secretary of State for Wales.

Perhaps the MPs took the Plaid Cymru line (before yesterday's debate) that a referendum is a "tidying-up exercise" rather than today's Plaid line that the 53-0 vote was a major constitutional event.

Peter Hain did his best to distract attention from #triggertuesday by comparing Wales with Rwanda to make his point that Wales remains a relatively wealthy country.

The 30 minutes MPs get to question Gordon Brown were largely devoted to a very loud shouting match about how to care for elderly people in England.

The Prime Minister tried to attack the Conservatives for failing to match Labour "guarantees" on NHS treatment (again in England).

Mr Brown promised a modern health service with "personalised services available to people and tailored to their needs."

He then told David Cameron: "I cannot for the life of me understand why the Conservative party is rejecting the cancer guarantee that would allow people to see a specialist within two weeks. I believe that that challenges its very commitment to the health service."

Does Gordon Brown believe that any party that doesn't apply the cancer guarantee has a dubious commitment to the health service?

He may need to be cautious with his pre-election rhetoric lest others highlight a Labour-led administration in Cardiff that, as far as I know, won't operate the same enforceable guarantee.


But enough excitement for one week. MPs are off until February 22 - and so am I. Bye for now.

Hain puts Wales on the map

Wales is well-used to being compared to deprived parts of the UK in the competitive poverty stakes but now it appears the comparison has gone worldwide.

Secretary of State Peter Hain compared Wales with Rwanda in the Commons today while insisting Wales is still a wealthy country.

He told Tory MP David Jones: "Do you not agree, that compared with Rwanda and most countries in the rest of the world - most countries in the rest of the world is the point I was making if you'd not chosen to take that quote out of context - that Wales is indeed still a wealthy country?"

According to UN statistics, in 2005 77 per cent of Rwanda's population lived below the international poverty line of 80 pence a day, less than seven per cent of the population have a telephone and just one per cent are internet users.

Wales has also escaped the genocide and civil war that hit Rwanda in the early 1990s.

What Peter Hain said is, of course, true - Wales is a relatively wealthy country - but many would regard the comparison between with Rwanda as meaningless - unless, of course, he knows something about the Welsh economy that we don't.

UPDATE 1620: Peter Hain statement:

"Frankly, I could have chosen my words more carefully. Of course no one is suggesting that Wales has ever suffered from poverty on the same scale as in Africa.
"My point was that home repossessions and job losses in Wales are, thankfully, at a much lower level than under the disastrous recessions of the 1980s and 1990s when Conservative Governments were in power."

Pro-active holding patterns and stakeholders

MPs on the Welsh affairs select committee take pride in working through two languages. Today they heard evidence in a third that is, fortunately, spoken by very few people.

Committee chairman Hywel Francis prompted the introduction of this new language by asking the executive director of the Legal Services Commission, the body that looks after legal aid, what decisions had been taken about the future of the LSC's office.

This was Phil Lambert's reply: "It is fair to say we are in something of a holding pattern since the earlier meetings for a number of reasons but I think that is in terms of pro-active actions that we are taking.

"What we are certainly not in a holding pattern for is engagement consultations and liaison with stakeholders."
 
All translations gratefully received.