The Lib Dems do their sums

The Liberal Democrats, their leader told us yesterday, are going to treat the voters as grown-ups.

"All our figures," said the man in charge of their manifesto, "add up to the nearest penny".

Er, up to a point. I type hotfoot from a Lib Dem news conference at which the man who wants to be Secretary of State for Wales after the general election admitted he doesn't know what his party's policies mean for Welsh pounds, let alone pennies.

Roger Williams told us: "The politics of plenty have gone. We have got to be responsible."

So what, I wondered, would be the financial consequences of the Lib Dems' decision to scrap or delay several of their cherished policies in England?

"We are going to have to work that through, we haven't worked that out yet."

Would a Lib Dem government go ahead with the defence training academy at St Athan or scrap it, as suggested by deputy leader Vince Cable?

Roger Williams: "It isn't clear from what the Government has said whether the St Athan money is new money or money used for training. If it is new money, that is challenging."

Would a Lib Dem government go ahead with the electrification of the rail line between London and Swansea?

"We haven't got any plans to either postpone it or reject it."

Things will become clearer, possibly, later this week when Mr Williams meets Danny Alexander to discuss "Barnett consequentials" and other spending issues.

Hold the front page

Hold the front page. Well, the Western Mail did. Its front page marks the remarkable news that the Lib Dems will enter the next election campaign with at least one policy unchanged from the last.

The party wants to scrap the Welsh Secretary's role in the UK Cabinet, merging it into a new Department of the Nations and Regions.

This is part of an attempt to cut public spending by cutting the cost of government, even if the party's leader in Wales could not say, on the Politics Show yesterday, how much would be saved by the move.

Today, the Tory-bashing mood in Bournemouth continues, with Vincent Cable attacking George Osborne and his party.

Saint Vince, as he is known among the Lib Dems, will say of the Tories: "They pose as tough guys cutting spending sooner and deeper than anyone else" before accusing them of "political cynicism".

The Lib Dems, of course, would never join the rush to pose as tough guys cutting spending. Dr Cable's idea last week for saving £13bn from the defence budget - scrapping the training academy scheduled for St Athan - is now "under review" according to Nick Clegg.

There's euphemistic talk of "robust discussions" between Lib Dems in Wales and Westminster after the storm generated by the idea, although Dr Cable appeared to defend it on the BBC News Channel at the weekend.

Kirsty Williams, kept in the dark by her colleagues, says communication will improve: "We're simply not going to put up with it any more."

That's Vince told, then.

The first snub of September?

It's that time of year again. A hefty document lands on the doormat to quel that almost tangible sense of anticipation.

But enough about the new Argos catalogue, the equally lengthy agenda for the Liberal Democrat conference has also arrived amid no less excitement.

Students of Welsh politics who plough through A fresh start for Britain - Choosing a different, better future, will be quick to spot one of those "snubs to Wales" that punctuate the political landscape.

This is, says Nick Clegg, "one of our most important conferences ever". But there is no space on the conference platform for the new leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Kirsty Williams.

There is a speaking slot for her Scottish counterpart, Tavish Scott MSP, but Ms Williams is likely to be seen but not heard in the conference hall.

Party officials deny that this is response to the Lib Dems' 5th place in the European elections in Wales and say Ms W had a starring role at their spring gathering even if that was largely ignored by a weary media suffering from conference fatigue.

UPDATE: The Lib Dems now say their Welsh leader will be "summating" a debate on devolution on the Sunday morning, and will therefore be heard as well as seen in the conference hall even if she is denied a keynote platform role.

Demob-happy Speaker

There are two types of leaving speeches: one says "thank you, it's been marvellous, goodbye" and the other hints to varying degrees of bitterness at the real reason for leaving.

Michael Martin blended both types in his valedictory address to the Commons - all 24 minutes of it.

There was plenty of self-justification as he reminded MPs what he had brought to the job, before blaming them for the scandal that brought his downfall.

The Speaker may have been forced out because of his perceived slowness to respond to the issue but he criticised the response of MPs to proposals last year that would have banned them from using public money to buy household goods for their second homes and introduced tighter checks on spending.

"The response from this House was deeply disappointing. Half of the members did not attend to vote, and more than half of those who did vote rejected the proposals. I regretted that then. I deeply regret that now.

"And I suspect that many members of this House share my regret. Of course, the recommendations would not have solved every difficulty, but they would have ended many practices for which members have been attacked in recent weeks."

Having blamed the leaders of the three main parties here for failing to show leadership, it was then time for those three leaders to pay tribute to the first Speaker ousted for more than 300 years.

Nick Clegg faced the trickiest task, having been the only party leader to call on Mr Martin to resign. He confined himself to warm words about the Speaker's human qualities rather than his competence in the job.

After almost two hours basking in the tributes, Mr Martin said it reminded him of a farewell dinner for a long-serving councillor in Glasgow.

"So many good things were said he stood up and said I didn't realise how much you liked me and I think I'll stay on - but I can tell you your Speaker's demob-happy."

Stop Lembit?

Lembit Opik could have been forgiven for falling off his Segway when he read The Times this morning.

The paper reports that leading Lib Dems are plotting to stop him becoming President Opik in the battle for the senior party post.

Mr Clegg is staying neutral - he knows that interfering in internal elections is counter-productive - but The Times says key figures around him (not to mention many Welsh party bigwigs) are likely to support the alternative candidate, Baroness (Ros) Scott.

The Scott campaign seems to have left her rival trailing. She's even got a Welsh version of her website and has been working overtime on the Lib Dem rubber chicken circuit, judging by this list of engagments.

30 Aug 08 Swansea supper with local members
30 Aug 08 Pembrokeshire BBQ
29 Aug 08 Rhondda Cynon Taf Meeting Local Members
28 Aug 08 Newport Garden Party
28 Aug 08 Brecon & Radnorshire Buffet Lunch
27 Aug 08 Bridgend Quiz night and social
27 Aug 08 Neath Port Talbot, tea with Activists
27 Aug 08 Neath Port Talbot Meeting Council Group
26 Jul 08 Wrexham Garden Party
10 Apr 08 Swansea Local Election Campaigning
9 Apr 08 Cardiff Local Election Campaigning
8 Apr 08 Cardiff Local Election Campaigning
24 Feb 08 Welsh Liberal Democrats Spring Conference in Llandudno

Her site includes this endorsement from Kirsty Williams, the only declared candidate (so far) in the race to lead the Welsh Liberal Democrats: "I'm for Ros because as a member from Wales sometimes London can seem an awfully long way away".

Nick Clegg may have problems with pensions arithmetic but you can't fault the Lib Dems on their geography.

It's not that complicated

I've just completed my annual conference five minutes with the Liberal Democrat leader.

The best newsline was his emphatic support for Eleanor Burnham as the next leader of the party in Wales.

OK, I made that up in the absence of a world exclusive.

During the interview, he denied that his party's planned £20bn cuts in public spending would hit the Welsh Assembly Government's budget, although the £800m cut in the English road building programme would, I'd have thought, have some knock-on effect.

He also dismissed suggestions by one of his AMs, Peter Black, that the new economic policy is a little confusing - "it's not that complicated". (Peter's response to the question of what regional Assembly Members do is almost as long as Mike Ashley's diatribe on Newcastle United. Let's hope his inquisitor doesn't conclude that anyone who can spare that much time to respond in depth......)

Back to Nick Clegg. Disappointingly, both for me and those with ambitions in that direction, he refused to reveal his preferred choice as the next leader of the Welsh Lib Dems: "The worst thing the leader of a political party can do is start interfering with internal party elections. We are a very democratic party, a party owned, shaped, run by the members."

As is traditional at these times, I did ask the Lembit question. This is his response: "I think the public actually react very well to the fact that whatever you think of Lembit he's a human being he's a strong personality, he's not a colourless politician, he's got a varied life, he wears his heart on his sleeve and I actually think that people react very well to the fact that he stands out from the crowd."

All examples of Lembit standing out from the crowd gratefully received.

Sex, drugs, cosmic energy and Lembit Opik

I fear our privacy may be about to be invaded again, judging by this excerpt from Piers Morgan's diary in the Mail on Sunday:

"Just two weeks after his Liberal Democrat boss Nick Clegg suffered national humiliation from our GQ encounter (the one in which 'Cleggover' revealed to me how many women he'd slept with, and how good he is in bed...) I was invited, yes invited, to sit down for two hours and interview his housing spokesman, Lembit Opik.

My first reaction, before we met, was, "Why the hell is he doing this?"

My second reaction, on departing from his office as the sun blinked down over the yardarm, was, "Why the hell did he do that?"

I can't reveal too much at this stage, except to say that Lembit wanted to focus on the "big political issues affecting the country".

And I preferred to dwell on sex, drugs, cosmic energy and his bedroom arrangements with the Cheeky Girls.

I can't work out if the Lib Dems are committing this collective political suicide deliberately to raise their celebrity profiles, or whether they really are as dim as they seem."

Those of a sensitive disposition may wish to avoid the next issue of GQ magazine. I promise to read it, so you don't have to.

Lib Dem no vote

It's a funny old day. The story was supposed to be about Europe, referendums and Gordon Brown's government.

Tomorrow's headlines may yet be about the Liberal Democrats and the party's new leader, Nick Clegg, who endured a bruising question time today.

His decision to order MPs to abstain tonight has upset some of those described as Lib Dem frontbenchers (a relative term, as they only occupy two and a half benches).

We're told to expect three resignations from members of Mr Clegg's top team, the sort of gesture guaranteed to get those leaving jobs the sort of publicity they can't get from actually doing the jobs.

Equally cursed and blessed

A rather relieved Nick Clegg defied the laws of political gravity this afternoon to survive the curse of Opik.

The new Lib Dem leader held off the challenge of Chris Huhne to win by 511 votes despite having won the support of the former Welsh party leader Lembit Opik.

The Montgomeryshire MP had previously backed Charles Kennedy, Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes only to see their ambitions crumble rather soon afterwards.

Clegg's acceptance speech was straight from the Blair/Cameron model - lots of talk about the "new" (I've yet to find a politician who extolls the "old"). He's promised to get outside Westminster one day a week and listen to families who have nothing to do with politics.

After a cautious campaign, there's no clear sign of the direction in which he'll try to lead the Lib Dems, although he did make some potentially interesting comments about putting patients and parents in charge of public services.

Of course by the time he gets a chance of power he may be behind bars if he carries out threat to break the law on ID cards.

No word yet of how he plans to use the talents of Eleanor Burnham. Transport or Homeland Security might be inspired briefs.

Identity

Nick Clegg, the bookies' favourite to become the new leader of the Liberal Democrats says he's prepared to break the law to defeat the Government's plans for compulsory ID cards.

He said: "If the government seeks to make ID cards compulsory on every British citizen I will lead a people’s campaign to thwart the programme. I, and I expect thousands of people like me, will refuse to be forced to register."

This might carry more sway if he hadn't chosen to be photographed wearing his House of Commons ID on the front page of his website.