Another day, another crisis for Gordon Brown. The Tories' win in Crewe and Nantwich is the party's first by-election win from Labour since 1978.
The 17.6 per cent swing would give David Cameron a majority of more than 100 seats at Westminster.
A BBC producer asked me to calculate how many seats Labour would lose in Wales on that swing. If you're a Labour MP you may want to look away now.
Rough back-of-envelope calculations suggest the loss of 13 of the 29 Labour seats - from the more predictable Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff North to the rather less likely Cardiff South and Penarth and Cardiff West via Delyn and Newport West.
Talk of 13 losses may be fantasy politics. No-one expects a by-election size swing at the general election, but all but one of those six seats have been held by the Tories since 1979. There will be some anxious Labour backbenchers today.
They may draw comfort from the clumsy nature of Labour's campaign in Crewe, not just the "toffs" stuff but also the over-emphasis on their candidate as the daughter of Gwyneth Dunwoody. Tamsin Dunwoody may be a Dunwoody but she lives in Pembrokeshire, had few links to Crewe and playing the continuity card doesn't work when "time for a change" is in the air.
What would a Conservative government be like? London mayor Boris Johnson, the nearest we have to one at the moment, has been honouring his election pledge to publish the details and salaries of his senior advisors.
His chief spin doctor, my former BBC colleague Guto Harri, will be paid £124,364, twice the salary of a backbench MP.
That said, Guto will be appearing at the Hay Festival this week for the usual fee on offer - a white rose.
Showing posts with label Crewe and Nantwich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crewe and Nantwich. Show all posts
Friday, 23 May 2008
Tuesday, 20 May 2008
Crewe cut
How do you know there's a by-election on? BBC reporters find themselves in the same train carriage as MPs (they don't all travel first class when they have to pay their way).
I spent the day in Crewe and Nantwich, where one bookmaker has stopped taking bets on the Conservatives taking the seat from Labour - something that hasn't happened in a by-election for 30 years.
Totally unscientific interviews with random voters threw up real hostility towards Gordon Brown and his Government, not just over the 10 pence tax rate fiasco but also over the price of petrol and the rising cost of living.
Labour supporters don't seem convinced by their campaign's attempts to portray the Tory candidate as a toff or by the argument that someone who lives in a £1.5m house can't represent ordinary voters. (One Labour Cabinet Minister has several homes worth far more - and reputedly even employs a butler)
The Liberal Democrats look set to be squeezed, although they had plenty of MPs on the campaign trail today. I even bumped into Lembit Opik as he introduced his party's candidate to shoppers.
Another Lib Dem MP, Tim Farron offered voters what he described as something rare - "a magazine without Lembit Opik in it".
"You're just jealous," said the MP for Montgomeryshire.
There are 10 candidates standing in Thursday's election. You can read all about them on the BBC website. Do click there - I'll be testing you on them later.
I spent the day in Crewe and Nantwich, where one bookmaker has stopped taking bets on the Conservatives taking the seat from Labour - something that hasn't happened in a by-election for 30 years.
Totally unscientific interviews with random voters threw up real hostility towards Gordon Brown and his Government, not just over the 10 pence tax rate fiasco but also over the price of petrol and the rising cost of living.
Labour supporters don't seem convinced by their campaign's attempts to portray the Tory candidate as a toff or by the argument that someone who lives in a £1.5m house can't represent ordinary voters. (One Labour Cabinet Minister has several homes worth far more - and reputedly even employs a butler)
The Liberal Democrats look set to be squeezed, although they had plenty of MPs on the campaign trail today. I even bumped into Lembit Opik as he introduced his party's candidate to shoppers.
Another Lib Dem MP, Tim Farron offered voters what he described as something rare - "a magazine without Lembit Opik in it".
"You're just jealous," said the MP for Montgomeryshire.
There are 10 candidates standing in Thursday's election. You can read all about them on the BBC website. Do click there - I'll be testing you on them later.
Tuesday, 13 May 2008
Crewe Junction
Top marks to Jon Sopel of the BBC News channel for his opening question to Labour's candidate in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election: "How's the class war going?"
Tamsin Dunwoody, for it is she, was briefly non-plussed by the query, prompted by her party's campaign highlighting the relative affluence of her Conservative opponent Edward Timpson.
"We have a candidate opposing us who lives in a one and a half million pound mansion," Ms Dunwoody, late of the Welsh Assembly, said during a live interview.
That sum would barely buy a wing of Tony and Cherie Blair's latest purchase, a country house once home to Sir John Gielgud. Labour are branding Mr Timpson a toff, employing activists dressed up in top hat and tails to greet him in the constituency.
Cherie Blair's memoirs make much of her humble origins, although her husband went to Fettes - "the Scottish Eton" - which probably makes him a toff in Labour circles.
David Cameron and Boris Johnson have had to downplay their own schooling at Eton for political reasons. Visitors to Britain might think it slightly strange that some parents fork out tens of thousands of pounds buying what they think is the best education you can get, only for the beneficiaries to feel the need to distances themselves from it.
A campaign leaflet stoked up the class war. At least Labour aren't using the by-election to rail against the hereditary principle - probably just as well as Tamsin is the daughter of two Labour MPs and the grandaughter of a Labour general secretary and a member of the House of Lords.
The full list of by-election candidates, should you be interested, can be seen here.
If all this talk of old school ties is making you nostalgic, read this inspiring story about someone who had the misfortune to teach me at (comprehensive) school.
Tamsin Dunwoody, for it is she, was briefly non-plussed by the query, prompted by her party's campaign highlighting the relative affluence of her Conservative opponent Edward Timpson.
"We have a candidate opposing us who lives in a one and a half million pound mansion," Ms Dunwoody, late of the Welsh Assembly, said during a live interview.
That sum would barely buy a wing of Tony and Cherie Blair's latest purchase, a country house once home to Sir John Gielgud. Labour are branding Mr Timpson a toff, employing activists dressed up in top hat and tails to greet him in the constituency.
Cherie Blair's memoirs make much of her humble origins, although her husband went to Fettes - "the Scottish Eton" - which probably makes him a toff in Labour circles.
David Cameron and Boris Johnson have had to downplay their own schooling at Eton for political reasons. Visitors to Britain might think it slightly strange that some parents fork out tens of thousands of pounds buying what they think is the best education you can get, only for the beneficiaries to feel the need to distances themselves from it.
A campaign leaflet stoked up the class war. At least Labour aren't using the by-election to rail against the hereditary principle - probably just as well as Tamsin is the daughter of two Labour MPs and the grandaughter of a Labour general secretary and a member of the House of Lords.
The full list of by-election candidates, should you be interested, can be seen here.
If all this talk of old school ties is making you nostalgic, read this inspiring story about someone who had the misfortune to teach me at (comprehensive) school.
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