No spitting please

Handy advice from the Welsh Assembly Government's new welcome pack for newcomers to Wales: "Do not throw litter on the floor, or spit on the floor in public places, if you need to sneeze or blow your nose you should use a tissue."

The Welsh, of course, never, ever throw litter on the floor, even outside a 24-hour McDonald's in Swansea:

The Assembly Government also advises:

"British / Welsh people are generally reserved and well mannered. Neighbours great each other politely saying 'Good Morning / Good Afternoon' or 'Bore Da / Prynhawn Da' in Welsh, and often shake hands. In the UK, people say 'please', 'thank you' and 'excuse me' when in public places, or when receiving or paying for a service."

Reasons to be (more or less) cheerful

Twenty Ten may be only four days old, but there are already so many reasons to be cheerful. The magic of the FA Cup endures, the DFS sale is still on and there are only 119 editions of The Joy Of Crochet before you can boast a complete collection.

There may be ice on the ground but there is optimism in the air. On Corrie, Gail Potter/Tilsley/Platt/Hillman is about to tie the knot for the fourth time, although perhaps her fiance is the optimistic one.

And there's an election campaign on. It's compulsory in political reporting circles to predict at a safe distance from the election that this will be the longest/dirtiest/closest* (*delete as appropriate) campaign in history.

The cliche might even be true this time, with David Cameron openly talking of campaign launches yesterday and unveiling the first chapter of the draft Tory manifesto today.

After months of talking of cuts and pay freezes, Mr Cameron is trying to convince voters there's more to the Tories than doom and gloom, by offering to protect the NHS budget.

The draft manifesto may apply only in England but the financial consequences of today's pledge will be felt UK-wide. Mr Cameron is effectively offering to protect around one third of the Welsh Assembly Government's budget (unless he suddenly decides to tear up the Barnett formula).

But protecting some budgets mean cuts elsewhere, and less to spend on other services such as local government, transport and housing.

Welsh Secretary Peter Hain has picked up on the theme after Kenneth Clarke's chat about VAT with the Sunday Telegraph.

Mr Hain said: "Where will the cuts fall? They cannot deliver what they are promising without putting up VAT or slashing investment in Wales' schools and hospitals, in Sure Start, in large projects like Defence Training at St Athan or launch aid for new Airbus planes at Deeside."
If this is your first day back at work after Christmas, as it is mine, you probably feel as if you haven't been away. Never mind, there's only four more months of this to come. Happy New Year.

Banking on LCOs

Too much excitement can be bad for you, so let's talk about LCOs. Wales's former First Secretary has given his views on Legislative Competence Orders here.

Old news to readers of Mr Michael's Penarth Times column, I grant you, but interesting nevertheless - who are these Ministers who "spent far too long deliberating over Ann's proposals instead of getting on with it"? Time for the Penarth Times to name and shame.

The LCO Parliament has spent more time debating than any other is the one to give the Assembly the power to legislate over the Welsh language. You can read it here if you don't have a copy handy or have yet to learn it off by heart.

One or two MPs were intrigued by the reference to organisations "engaged in central banking" assuming it to be a reference to the original proposal to include the Bank of England - the only central bank operating in the UK - in the mix.

This puzzled one or two MPs on the Select Commitee for Welsh Affairs who wondered what it could mean.

Bilingual banknotes, perhaps? The MPs wrote to the Secretary of State for Wales. Peter Hain has now told them: "I do not believe the Assembly will be able to legislate on the issue of Welsh banknotes."

A less than emphatic denial, perhaps, but there (probably) goes any plan Cardiff Ministers may have for their own quantitative easing or to put an image of Owain Glyndwr on one side of a tenner note.

8 days is a long time in politics

Is it really all of eight days since George Osborne reminded the Conservative conference: "This June we told the truth and said publicly that whoever won the election would have to cut government spending"?

Yes, eight days on, a news release arrives in the inbox from the Welsh Conservatives. Headlined "WORST EVER SETTLEMENT FOR COUNCILS" it criticises the Welsh Assembly Government's local government budget.

“This increase marks a record low with regards to local government settlements in Wales," says Tory Assembly Member Darren Millar. “This is going to put even more stress on the already strained budgets of councils throughout the country."

This year's settlement may or may not be "the worst ever". Does anyone really think that if George Osborne is Chancellor 12 months hence - and has held his promised summer emergency Budget - the Welsh Assembly Government will have more cash to splash on councils? Or that local government in England will be spared Tory cuts?

The devolution settlement means WAG has no responsibility for raising its own funds - giving opposition parties equal freedom to criticise Ministers who fail to cough up the cash whatever their colleagues in Westminster say.

You can see why Unionist parties in Scotland - and figures close to Gordon Brown such as Ed Balls - believe political spending should be accompanied by some responsibility for raising the cash involved.

Money saving offer

Ed Balls's suggestion that £2bn could be cut off the schools budget in England is not an entirely academic debate for those interested in Welsh politics.

Students of the Barnett formula will already have worked out that this would leave the Welsh Assembly Government with around £100m less to spend.

It's a sign of how quickly the economic crisis has changed the political debate that a Labour Minister has been able to float the idea without howls of outrage (beyond the teaching unions).

If the idea had come from, say, the Conservatives, even in dire economic times, politicians in Cardiff Bay would be sticking pins in their John Redwood effigy dolls.

Missing in action

You may or may not be worried that 31 taxpayer-funded laptops, 10 Blackberries and six mobile phones have gone missing while in the carry of Welsh Assembly Government officials during the next three years.

The Lib Dems are very concerned about the possible loss of sensitive data, although they may be re-assured by an Assembly Government statement, which says no personal or sensitive data has been put at risk by the loss.

The statement comes from a spokesman for the Welsh Assembly Government's Director General, (People, Places & Corporate Services).

By the time you've got that job title on your hard drive, there isn't much space left for any personal or sensitive data.

All roads lead to Cardiff

Tonight sees the launch of the London branch of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, the brainchild of Lord Roberts of Llandudno.

I haven't seen the agenda but there's a rumour that item one may be education on devolution.

There's certainly scope for improvement, if this written exchange from the House of Lords is anything to go by:

Roads: A470
Question
Asked by Lord Roberts of Llandudno

To ask Her Majesty's Government what proposals they have to upgrade the A470 road.

Lord Davies of Oldham: The responsibility for trunk roads in Wales is devolved to the Welsh Assembly Government.

There may be trouble ahead

"Historic" is a word used almost daily in Welsh politics, but a small landmark looms next week.

MPs are due to grill Ministers from Cardiff Bay and Westminster on the Welsh Assembly Government's request to be able to legislate on the Welsh language.

Assembly Government Culture Minister Alun Ffred Jones will be followed by Wales Office Minister Wayne David during next Monday's meeting of the Welsh affairs select committee.

Ministers from both Parliament and the Assembly frequently appear before the committee to discuss plans to transfer law-making plans to Cardiff Bay.

But this is likely to be the first time that the UK Government Minister doesn't simply endorse the request for powers but voices reservations about the Assembly Government's request.

Wayne David, if prompted, is expected to refer to the results of a Wales Office consultation exercise that insiders say proved overwhelmingly hostile to the idea of extra responsibilities on business to offer services in Welsh.

Welsh Ramblings suggests the Wales Office has skewed its consultation exercise to obtain the sceptical response it wanted. Either way, another outbreak of tension between politicians either side of Offa's Dyke looks inevitable.

Spinning and swimming

Disraeli warned us of lies, damned lies and statistics but you'd think in this post-McBride era it would be difficult to spin real figures.

I've spent the day swimming in figures, amid claims and counter-claims of spending cuts that result from the Chancellor's Budget.

His "efficiency saving" is your spending cut, or not if savings are recycled into public services. Then again, if efficiency savings worth billions are possible, what is that money currently being wasted on?

The Wales Office put the Welsh share of the "efficiency savings" at £216m "over two years", which neatly avoids the point that there are none in the first of those two years.

Alistair Darling has promised higher savings in the years after 2011. More pain (or value for the taxpayer?) is on the way.

Fears that the Welsh Assembly Government would get more than £400m less than expected are based on the UK Government allowing WAG to spend this year £120m from next year's budget - and not repeating the move next year. If WAG got an early birthday present, would it really complain when another gift from the same source didn't arrive on the same day?

The Plaid Cymru deputy first Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones, has accused "London Labour" (headed by those well-known cockneys Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling) of imposing cuts on Wales.

The Wales Office insists the Assembly Government's Budget will still rise in real terms. Even if it gets £400m less than it expected - or hoped - would that really slash a £16bn budget?

Ministers say this 2.5 per cent cut in the expected (not actual) budget would still prove challenging, although many in the private sector face far worse at the moment.

The Institute of Directors makes the point: "We either squeeze public spending or higher taxation squeezes the life out of the economy".

But then the IoD never had to get elected.

A day of reckoning for all?

Apologies for the lack of regular blogging of late: I've been too busy working.

Today, as you might well have noticed is Budget Day, or "the day of reckoning" as the Tories would have it.

It's the day we discover just how deep in it we are - well, possibly. Treasury economic forecasts are not known for their accuracy of late.

We can predict political reaction with more certainty. Future public spending plans will be tight, and made tighter by what the Treasury calls "efficiency savings" - the ones that have alarmed Ministers in Cardiff Bay so much.

With overall public spending around £500bn a year, "efficiency savings" of around £5bn-£15bn don't sound like much, but the knock-on effects in Wales could be challenging.

Efficiency savings may be seen as Treasury-speak for spending cuts, although Peter Hain points out that they can be recycled to deliver improved public services. His view that the Welsh adminstrative bureaucracy has been too comfortable for too long may at least spark a debate in Cardiff Bay.

One of the consequences of a system where a Government is responsible only for spending (not raising) its Budget is that there is always someone else to blame - in this case, the UK (or London, if you work for Plaid Cymru) Government.

So expect howls of outrage from opposition parties in Cardiff Bay as the spending squeeze bites.

While Labour MPs hail "a Budget for jobs" (on the day unemployment rises again), Plaid Cymru will doubtless describe it as a Budget for the south-east of England (from a Scottish Chancellor).

Plaid argue that the UK Government's recovery plan has so far benefited largely London and the south-east of England, even if Northern Rock, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Halifax Bank of Scotland and the Dunfermline Building Society have their roots elsewhere.

The squeeze really bites from next year, by when there may be a change of government in London.

So today could be a day of reckoning for the Tories too. Will Tories in the Welsh Assembly agree with George Osborne that public spending needs to be curbed? (and not just in non-devolved areas)

Will the Conservatives at Westmisnter match Labour's spending plans? Almost certainly not.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan told me: "We will spend less than Labour - we are looking for less of an increase in public spending than Labour has planned in." A point worth remembering should the Welsh Tories bemoan lower public spending to come.

With spending cuts and higher taxes to come, next year's general election may be one not worth winning - "a poisoned chalice" as the Lib Dem MP Jenny Willott puts it.

Much ado.....?

How many people have bought their council home recently?

Anyone following recent political debate in Wales would think it was a pressing issue, with the Assembly Government keen to acquire the power to suspend the right to buy to help tackle a shortage of affordable housing.

The issue has fuelled an increasingly angry row between some politicians in Wales and Westminster. A compromise - offering a UK Cabinet Minister a veto before the power is exercised - has poured more oil on troubled waters.

MPs on the Commons Welsh Affairs Committee today issued a statement distancing themselves from the inclusion of the veto. They say it was included after negotiations between WAG and the Wales Office.

This may be a row over a power that isn't used and a veto that isn't exercised.

So why the fuss? This graph shows that right-to-buy sales have slumped to a five-year low, from 1,500 in early 2004 to just 32 in the last three months of 2008.

Yes, according to WAG's own figures, only 32 homes were sold under the right-to-buy across the whole of Wales between October and December 2008 - 11 a month.

As the graph's two blue lines fall away, an invisible (red and green?) line reflecting political activity soars from left to right.

You can read more about the figures here.

Public Service Blogging

Some public service blogging to guide you through tomorrow's newspapers. How many of Gordon Brown's eye-catching announcements apply outside England?

The answer is not many. Prescriptions are already free in Wales, so the free prescriptions for cancer patients will make no difference there.

The educational technology allowances will help children from poorer families in England access the internet. In Wales, the first "free laptops" trial doesn't begin until next year.

Free part-time nursery education for two-year-olds (I should declare a parental interest) will happen only in England, and then only very gradually.

On health, Mr Brown promised: "In April a Labour Britain will become the first country in the whole world to offer free universal check ups for everyone over 40."

(Again, I declare an interest) What he should have said (but couldn't) was "a Labour England". So will the Welsh Assembly Government introduce free universal check-ups for the over 40s?

"In Wales, GPs already monitor high-risk patients and provide lifestyle advice to manage that risk. We are currently looking at ways of strengthening that approach for cardiac disease, stroke and diabetes by introducing a more co-ordinated approach."

I'll take that as a "no", then.

Seconds out: Round 2

The English Health Minister who managed to wind up half the Welsh Assembly Government earlier this year has returned to his theme with comments that threaten to re-open a row between Cardiff Bay and Westminster.

Ben Bradshaw told a conference in London this morning that the NHS in England is delivering a better service despite spending less per patient than in Wales.

He said he was "fed up" being told that England suffered from health apartheid "because millionaires in Wales get their prescriptions free or Scotland plans to allow anyone who wants to park in busy hospital car parks for free.

"What about the fact that in England you can get your operation much more quickly, you don't have to wait for more than four hours in A and E any more and it is easy to see a GP when you want?

"These things matter more to the public. We are already delivering them in England and we have been doing so while spending less per head on health than in Scotland and Wales."

Mr Bradshaw's remarks - scripted, not off-the-cuff - were made during his keynote speech to a CBI conference on health.

Earlier this year, Mr Bradshaw sparked a row between the Assembly and UK Governments by saying the money spent on free parking would be better spent on improving patient care.

That prompted Welsh Secretary Paul Murphy to have a quiet word with Mr Bradshaw's boss, Alan Johnson - and was followed by a period of diplomacy on the Health Minister's part.

Welsh Assembly Government Ministers, who were re-assured Mr Bradshaw's views were not official UK Government policy, will doubtless be thrilled to learn of his latest outburst.

3PM update: WAG have released their statement"Devolved Government means that each administration is free to pursue its own priorities. Mr Bradshaw is entitled to his views. Free prescriptions and parking reforms have been widely welcomed by patients in Wales. We are putting the patient first and removing barriers to accessing healthcare. We see prescription and car parking charges as a tax on the sick. Investment in improving access to healthcare will improve the health and well-being of the people of Wales."

Hold the front page

As headlines go, it's probably not going to make it onto anyone's front page.

"WELSH-ENGLISH BORDER MUST NOT HINDER ACCESS TO HIGH QUALITY HEALTH SERVICES, SAY MPS" is today's offering from Parliament's Welsh affairs select committee.

Does anyone know any politician in any party who thinks the border should hinder access to high quality health services?

The bland, some might say bleedin' obvious, headline from the committee's press release relates to an interim report on services across the Wales/England border.

The committee heard evidence that Welsh patients wait longer than English patients for identical treatment in the same hospitals. The Welsh Health Minister has so far declined an invitation to give evidence.

The report was agreed unanimously by MPs from all parties, although they are drawing very different conclusions from its conclusions.

The Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives both believe it exposes the folly of the "Wales-only" approach of the Labour/Plaid Cymru Welsh Assembly Government - not an analysis shared by the Labour and Plaid members of the committee.

The MPs expect to file a fuller report later this year.

U-turn if you want to

You wait 10 months for a U-turn and then two come along at once.

Gordon Brown won't enjoy today's newspaper headlines, although the Government's change of heart will help many, if not all, of those who lost out from his last Budget as Chancellor.

The U-turn by the Welsh Assembly Government should mean NHS staff in Wales enjoy the same legal protection offered to their English counterparts.

One month ago, WAG insisted the new powers weren't needed in Wales. They're not saying that today.

The U-turn followed the outcry from Labour MPs and a Lords rebellion led by the cross-bench peer Baroness Finlay of Llandaff.

All sides are now being magnanimous in defeat/victory. WAG said in a terse statement: "The Minister met recently with Baroness Finlay to discuss this issue. A Government amendment will be put down, which would extend these powers to Wales."

The deal was brokered by Secretary of State Paul Murphy and First Minister Welsh Rhodri Morgan.

An e-mail from the Wales Office sent to Baroness Finlay was more conciliatory:

"The Government aim to table the amendment later this week for Third Reading. The Government amendment will give the Assembly Ministers the option to request the powers laid out in this Bill at anytime in the future, if they determine there is a need for this legislation, they can request for it to be given to them via an Affirmative Order (delegated legislation), as is the case for Northern Ireland in the aforementioned Bill".

Will they request that hitherto "unnecessary" option? Don't bet against it.

Government by committee(s)

Governments often react to events in one of two ways.

There is no problem so grave that cannot be solved either by legislation, or by setting up a committee aka working group, review, task and finish group, convention etc.

New Labour has been keen on passing laws since it came to power at Westminster, creating hundreds if not thousands of new offences. Under Gordon Brown, it has also been pilloried for setting up review after review.

The Assembly Government is so fond of committees it recently set up a committee with the task of setting up another committee.

The contrast in styles has emerged on a serious issue. The UK Government is tightening the law to protect NHS staff from violence and abuse at the hands of patients and their relatives. (I thought this was already illegal, but apparently a new specific offence of creating a disturbance or nuisance on NHS premises is needed).

Most criminal law applies across England and Wales but in something of a departure the Ministry of Justice decided that as this law affects the NHS it would give the Welsh Assembly Government the right to veto its application to Wales (which it promptly did).

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: "Health is a devolved matter in Wales. Although the provisions create a criminal offence, the offence is aimed solely at creating protection for and benefits for the health service (in response to a problem in the health service) . We consulted the Welsh Assembly Government last year and they confirmed that they did not want the provisions to extend to Wales. We are discussing the issue of the extension of this provision to NHS premises in Wales with the Department of Health, Wales Office and the Welsh Assembly Government."

A Welsh Assembly Government spokesperson said, several hours later: "The Welsh Assembly Government, working with the relevant Trade Unions and professional associations have developed its own set of policies for protecting staff who work in the Welsh NHS. These have recently been worked on further in a group led by a secondee from the Royal College of Nursing in Wales.

The report of that working group is expected imminently and will further inform the development of actions designed to meet Welsh needs and circumstances."

The problem WAG has it that it can't change criminal law so any changes its committee comes up with will stop short of that. If you're a nurse in A and E on Friday night trying to get rid of a drunk you might wonder how different Welsh needs and circumstances are from those over the border, but I digress.

Amid the general confusion, a former First Secretary of the Assembly Government, as it then wasn't, Alun Michael, has been trying to persuade UK Ministers to extend the law to Wales.

He thinks it's absurd that Welsh workers won't get the same legal protection and blamed Whitehall officials who didn't understand devolution for the loophole.

Only when the BBC started making calls did it emerge that this part of the new law was actually vetoed by Assembly Government Ministers.

The redoutable cross-bencher Baroness Finlay of Llandaff has now tabled amendments to the Criminal Justice and Immigration Bill to extend its remit to Welsh hospitals.

It will be an interesting test of devolution. Whitehall departments have been widely criticised for failing to understand devolution and being insensitive to it. It appears that this is a case of the Ministry of Justice being extremely sensitive to the Assembly Government on a non-devolved issue and ultimately annoying more than a few MPs on the way.

For those at the sharp end this must all appear very confusing. If you're a nurse in A and E on Friday night trying to get rid of an aggressive drunk you could be forgiven for wondering exactly how "Welsh needs and circumstances" differ from those over the border.

Perhaps Ministers could set up a committee to find out.

Budget Day fall-out

UPDATE: The Budget will mean an extra £5m over three years for the Welsh Assembly Government to spend, a result of changes in the UK Government's "modernisation fund".

One of my colleagues, who possibly needs to get out more, has already calculated this as "roughly equivalent to 0.01% of the Assembly Government's total budget (of circa £47 billion) over the same three year period."

Don't spend it all at once......

It's dark at night

A helpful statement of the bleeding obvious from the Welsh Assembly Government:

"With the clocks going back this weekend, parents are reminded that both darker nights and darker mornings mean children are more vulnerable on our roads as they are less visible to motorists.

"The Assembly Government urge’s (sic) parents to ensure that their children wear something bright and take extra care when out and about."

If only the Assembly Government would "take extra care" with its use of apostrophes you could almost trust it to educate your children.

Another top tip: "Bright fluorescent clothing shows up best during the day, especially in dull or misty weather but doesn’t show up after dark."

One more thing - don't forget to wrap up warm. (OK, I made that bit up).

Funtime Wednesday

Another fun Wednesday beckons. The first question time for Gordon Brown since he decided not to call a general election.

Monday's statement on Iraq was a sombre affair, light on partisan insults. Today's half-hour should be rather different.

The warm-up act, the hors d’œuvre, the appetiser, is 30 minutes of questions to Wales Office Ministers Peter Hain and Huw Irranca-Davies.

The questions were tabled before Parliament returned from its summer break this Monday but that shouldn't stop creative MPs from posing more topical queries - perhaps raising the missing millions from the Welsh settlement in the spending review.

What will be the impact of the deal on the Labour/Plaid coalition government in Cardiff Bay? If the local government settlement west of the border mirrors that in England then councils may find it a struggle to keep council tax rises low in the run-up to next year's elections.

Will the "challenging" settlement create tensions between Labour and Plaid Cymru?

Plaid parliamentary leader Elfyn Llwyd says Ministers will have to prioritise the policies in their coalition accord: "They may have to make cuts here and there.

"We knew it was going to be tight. It is disappointing, not devastating is it?"

Post-pre-Budget report

I managed to survive the day without using too much of the accountancy jargon thrust upon us after Alistair Darling's spending review.

As a bonus, we even managed to entice a Government Minister or two onto the airwaves.

But when you look at the small print of the Welsh settlement there are big questions to ask about why the Assembly Government budget this year is more than £200m less than it expected.

The answer, according to governments at both ends of the M4, is that the NHS in England (unbelievably you might think given its financial crises) actually underspent last year and under that formula I try to avoid mentioning a couple of hundred million or so that could have been spent in Welsh hospitals or on other public services was sliced off the balance sheet.

(Under the formula, Wales gets a share of any increase in comparable spending in England - and a share of any decrease).

The Assembly Government says it's keen to negotiate with the Treasury to get the money - after all it's twice what John Redwood sent back during his time as Secretary of State in the 1990s.

The reduction of up to £260m a year also allows the UK Government to claim bigger increases in Welsh spending, thanks to the lower base. (I should point out that spending will still increase in real terms, although not as quickly as the Assembly is accustomed to).

As you might expect, opposition parties are queuing up to attack what's been called the "worst" spending round since devolution.

That rather assumes all state spending is a good thing - you don't need to be John Redwood to prefer a more neutral ("tightest"?) term but the budget will certainly make life more interesting for Labour and their new best friends in Cardiff Bay.