Referendum(s) fever - "pretty bloody confusing"

You wait years for referendum fever to take off and then two come along at once.

I'll leave the Alternative Vote details to those with more time on their hands, but I ventured into the Welsh referendum date by asking a question at a Plaid Cymru Westminster news conference.

When, I asked Plaid's parliamentary leader, would the next Welsh referendum - on increasing the Assembly's powers - be?

Elfyn Llwyd said: "I don't think it is going to be in May [2011], it is either going to be in October or March. At the present time my suspicion is October."

Mr Llwyd said First Minister Carwyn Jones and his Plaid deputy Ieuan Wyn Jones had held a press conference in Cardiff today at which they were not talking dates.

"The Conservatives in the National Assembly are adamant that they don't want it on the same day as the election in May.

"And frankly, there is some sense in that because while parties might be rowing the same boat on the referendum they are also at each others' throats getting seats so it's going to be pretty bloody confusing."

"I don't think anyone wants to be hemmed in by the Tories and giving in to their demands but their demand is that they would be happy to vote for the trigger provided it was explicitly ruled out that there would be something in May.

"In reality it is ruled out, all but, although no guarantees can be given. It is simply not tenable" {to hold a referendum on election day}"

He added: "My guess is October, if not March."

It's fair to say that the reporting of those remarks has led to a minor, although hopefully temporary, eruption on the Elfynometer.

Perhaps I'll stick to less controversial subjects in future; tomorrow, it's back to the Iraq Inquiry.

Referendum fever hits non-chattering classes

I am recovering from the shock of being described by Tomos Livingstone as a member of the chattering classes.

The shock is so great I shall probably take a few hours out of the fascinating constitutional debate over the future of the Welsh Assembly.

I realise I may be in a minority here - the latest poll on the subject suggests the turnout in the referendum Peter Hain doesn't want anytime soon could be between 79 and 94 per cent. Don't all rush at once now.

Referendum fever (2)

Readers of this blog (both of them) won't be surprised to have heard Peter Hain suggest that an early referendum to give the Welsh Assembly more powers would be lost and therefore it might not be good politics to hold a vote before 2011.

The Secretary of State for Wales can't be accused of inconsistency on this issue.

Peter Hain, June 2005: "I note that the Richard Commission did not envisage primary powers until 2011. There is no consensus for a referendum today: it would be lost."

"My own view is that the new Assembly arrangements should be allowed to bed down through the next Assembly term between 2007 and 2011, and that there is no case for considering a referendum until at least the following Assembly term of office."

Peter Hain, November 2005: 'We need to be sure that there was a broad consensus of at least the level of 1997. When we call this referendum we have got to have a reasonable confidence we can win it.

"If we lost a referendum it would be disastrous for the cause of primary powers, which is why I am being cautious about this, and there is a constitutional reality check...If we lost a referendum it would be off the agenda for a very long time."

Peter Hain, July 2007: "I do not think you can guarantee in advance when we will hold a referendum. There is a process to try to achieve that objective. That is what the agreement is and it has been entered into in good faith. I am now rather doubtful whether it can be achieved."
Peter Hain, July 2007: "That is an ambition of the agreement signed between the two leaders, now the Minister and Deputy First Minister of the Welsh Assembly Government, and endorsed by respective Parties. I cannot anticipate the translation of that ambition into practice on an exact date. It is no secret that I have always said, and I have not changed my mind though if there is progress on realising that ambition then obviously I will have to take account of that, I think it is better for the first stage of the Government of Wales Act 2006 to bed down the extra powers provided for under both the Order in Council process and then, in parallel, the framework powers, which will give considerable extra power to the Assembly, and its capacity to deal with those extra powers has yet to be tested. I would have thought we needed a period to see how that beds down and see what the case is for going for full law-making primary powers, rather than to set a date in advance artificially. "

That Peter Hain - too consistent for his own good. But in politics, as in comedy, timing is everything. Mr Hain's comments made headlines because they were a direct response to the optimism (certainty?) of Rhodri Morgan and his Plaid coalition partners that a referendum will be held in or before 2011.

He also feels "bounced" into the appointment of his friend Sir Emyr Jones Parry as chair of the convention paving the way for a referendum.

The Welsh patient

Let's hope Peter Hain isn't the squeamish kind. The Welsh Secretary had a telephone chat with Rhodri Morgan this morning and enquired after the First Minister's health after his heart operation.

"He was on bullish form", reports Mr Hain, "telling me all the details about his operation with his encyclopedic ability to remember every tiny detail, including the exact diameter of the stems that were inserted into his arteries, which was absolutely fascinating."

Mr Morgan may have been less cheered by what Mr Hain had to say about the prospect of the Welsh Assembly gaining full law-making powers within four years.

The Labour coalition agreement with Plaid Cymru talks of holding a referendum "as soon as practicable, at or before the end of the assembly term (in 2011)".

But Mr Hain has re-assured his party's MPs that may not happen.

"I don't think we would win a referendum in the immediate future - the conditions are not right for that."

He added: "I am rather doubtful about whether it could be achieved."

He was equally sceptical about plans by AMs to re-open the issue of how the Welsh Assembly is funded - the so-called Barnett formula.

"Public spending per head is £1,000 higher than in England and English MPs are aware of that. I think that this is a potential Pandora's box for the Welsh budget and it has to be approached with a lot of care.

"We have got no plans as a Government to change the Barnett formula."

Mind you, he did rule out a Labour/Plaid Cymru coalition last March.

"I was very happy with what I said then," he told reporters today.