Money saving offer

Ed Balls's suggestion that £2bn could be cut off the schools budget in England is not an entirely academic debate for those interested in Welsh politics.

Students of the Barnett formula will already have worked out that this would leave the Welsh Assembly Government with around £100m less to spend.

It's a sign of how quickly the economic crisis has changed the political debate that a Labour Minister has been able to float the idea without howls of outrage (beyond the teaching unions).

If the idea had come from, say, the Conservatives, even in dire economic times, politicians in Cardiff Bay would be sticking pins in their John Redwood effigy dolls.

Hold the front page

Hold the front page. Well, the Western Mail did. Its front page marks the remarkable news that the Lib Dems will enter the next election campaign with at least one policy unchanged from the last.

The party wants to scrap the Welsh Secretary's role in the UK Cabinet, merging it into a new Department of the Nations and Regions.

This is part of an attempt to cut public spending by cutting the cost of government, even if the party's leader in Wales could not say, on the Politics Show yesterday, how much would be saved by the move.

Today, the Tory-bashing mood in Bournemouth continues, with Vincent Cable attacking George Osborne and his party.

Saint Vince, as he is known among the Lib Dems, will say of the Tories: "They pose as tough guys cutting spending sooner and deeper than anyone else" before accusing them of "political cynicism".

The Lib Dems, of course, would never join the rush to pose as tough guys cutting spending. Dr Cable's idea last week for saving £13bn from the defence budget - scrapping the training academy scheduled for St Athan - is now "under review" according to Nick Clegg.

There's euphemistic talk of "robust discussions" between Lib Dems in Wales and Westminster after the storm generated by the idea, although Dr Cable appeared to defend it on the BBC News Channel at the weekend.

Kirsty Williams, kept in the dark by her colleagues, says communication will improve: "We're simply not going to put up with it any more."

That's Vince told, then.

Fashion victim and cake

Greetings from Bournemouth, where the fine weather and free cake on offer at the Liberal Democrat conference is almost enough to leave me in a sunny mood at the start of the (UK) conference season.

The cake marks a return to the cheesy stunts and photo-opportunities enjoyed by Lib Dems in years gone by.

A party worker donned a Gordon Brown mask to deliver the said cake to the party's leader in Wales, Kirsty Williams.

She was kind enough to give me the first slice, even if it was smaller than you might expect. The point the Lib Dems were making is that Wales gets a smaller slice than it should when it comes to public spending.

I took the opportunity to canvass English Lib Dem activists to see whether they'd fancy giving up some cash from their constituncies to spend on public services in Wales.

And, well-meaning souls that they are, most agreed, including a man from Harrow who argued that London already subsidises the rest of the UK to the tune of £11bn a year so a few more million wouldn't make much difference.

On a fashion note, a colleague noted that Ms Williams was wearing a dress identical to that worn during her role as presenter of the Welsh Mastermind.

If I ever turn up at a Lib Dem conference and discover I share a wardrobe item with Peter Black you have permission to shoot me before I reach for the revolver myself.

Public service blogging

Consensus politics lives, up to a point. Labour, Plaid Cymru and SNP politicians emerged from today's Joint Ministerial Committee at Westminster to declare unity on the issue of the day - public spending.

Their cause - endorsed by the arrival of Gordon Brown towards the end of the meeting - was the need to keep spending high until the recession is over, a policy that isolates the Conservatives.

There were limits to the consensus. The Labour/Plaid Cymru coalition that runs the Welsh Assembly Government want an advance on their budget for 2011/2012 so they can carry on spending next April for the 2010/2011 financial year.

Will they get it? Welsh Secretary Peter Hain pointed out that "you can't keep bringing forward capital spending because it's within a fixed envelope over a period of years" although UK Ministers will consider the request. Ministers hope that economic recovery will be underway before next April, removing the need for a continued fiscal stimulus.

Plaid were also happy to get agreement for Ministers and officials to consider independent arbitration in deciding levels of public spending in Wales. At the moment the Treasury decides how the Barnett formula works and whether Wales gets a slice of extra spending in England, e.g. on the London Olympics.

Peter Hain offered limited hope to his nationalist partners/foes: "You cannot in the end settle issues of spending and finance and the distribution in our case between England and Wales and Scotland and Northern Ireland by some independent court. You need to find a way of resolving disputes but in the end it'll come down to politics and what the public support and don't support."

The flippin' obvious

A gold star to Tomos Livingstone for revealing the truth about joined up opposition within the Liberal Democrats.

As one Welsh party official put it in an email to party HQ/federal colleagues at Westminster/their London masters* (*delete according to taste), "We had no idea this saving would be identified and are now dealing with media 'did you knows?' - it's flippin' obvious we didn't....the longer we leave it the more apparent the disconnect."

Enough of this, I've got a story to do that involves the Barnett formula and ministerial committees. Have all my Christmases really come early?

Cutting it fine

The Lib Dems are not the only party looking at defence cuts.

The Telegraph reports that the shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, has a range of military projects in his sights, among them the A400M airlifter, the wings for which would be made at Broughton, that favoured photo-opportunity for every politician heading to North-East Wales.

The A400M is another of the projects Vince Cable would scrap, according to his "first, rough attempt".

Facing facts or facing both ways?

More news from the Welsh Lib Dems here. The man who describes himself as the Liberal Democrat Shadow Secretary of State for Wales says it's time to face facts over spending.

Roger Williams says: "All politicians must face up to the fact that we will need to cut spending to reduce the deficit, and they need to start outlining what they would cut, rather than making tokenistic gestures, or avoiding the issue altogether.

"While Brown and Cameron are playing hide and seek over cuts, Vince Cable has outlined a set of serious proposals that would make a major impact on reducing our levels of debt. This is by no means the full list of what needs to be done, and more hard choices will have to be made in the run-up to the general election, but this is an important first step."

An important first step or a "rough, first attempt"? With the Lib Dems, you don't need to choose.

The Things They Say

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams on the proposed military training academy at St Athan:

"It is hard to underestimate the economic impact this will have if St Athan's bid is successful. It is a huge investment in Wales and the people of Wales, and my congratulations go to all those who have worked on the bid, who have been vigorously promoting the advantages of a South Wales location and the useful experience of the local workforce.

"There have been a number of job losses and closure threats at St Athan over the past few years, but this contract should now bring some stability to the workers and to local people. It is a vote of confidence not just in St Athan, but in the whole of Wales - a recognition that we are a location with expertise, a country with ability, a place to do business."

That was Kirsty Williams speaking on January 17, 2007. Or perhaps that was just a "first, rough attempt".

Sandals in the wind

The Lib Dems appear to have got their sandals in a twist after I highlighted a policy proposal put forward by their Treasury spokesman and deputy leader - an idea that would save billions but could also mean thousands of expected jobs would never be created.

The party has put Dr Cable's idea on its website but has now added the disclaimer: "Please note: this is not official Liberal Democrat policy and examples are illustrative and represent only a first, rough attempt."

It's just coincidence that the St Athan proposal appears in the same sentence as the plan to scrap Trident, which was party policy the last time I looked.

Perhaps by "first, rough attempt" (an interesting concept for someone who would be Chancellor to publish) they simply mean an embarrassing cock-up.

Lib Dem Axe-Man

No-one can accuse the Lib Dems of refusing to use the c-word. Their Treasury guru, Vince Cable, is publishing today a list of where the axe would fall should they win power.

His chums in the Welsh Lib Dems may or may not be thrilled to learn that Dr Cable would scrap the defence training review contract, estimated to be worth £13bn, a project that would see a defence training academcy set up in St Athan in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Dr C argues that this is believed to be a "highly expensive" option and would therefore scrap the contract.

No news yet on what the Welsh Lib Dems, who previously supported the project, think of plans to scrap one of the largest investments Wales has seen along with the prospect of several thousand jobs.

UPDATE: The Welsh Lib Dems, who appear to have been caught on the hop by their economic expert, say his views - which they circulated - are not party policy although they do indicate "the direction of travel" (their ghastly phrase, not mine) of the cuts required.

Clearly, only irresponsible hacks could confuse the views of someone who describes himself as the "Liberal Democrat shadow Chancellor" and is deputy leader of his party with party policy.

St Vince's spin doctors deny that he's calling for it to be scrapped. I must have been confused by this excerpt from his pamphlet: "The main proposals are.......Reducing the amount of waste in the defence procurement process, including scrapping........the Defence Training Review contract (£13bn over 25 years)".

As he puts it himself: "The time for generalities is over".

Accountable to parents?

Devolution may mean different policies for different parts of Britain but UK-wide political parties tend to apply similar principles everywhere.

Well, they do sometimes. Was the scrapping of tests for primary school pupils in Wales (and replacement by internal teacher assessment) an example of "Welsh solutions for Welsh problems" or bad news for parents?

Here's Lord Mandelson's take on the issue, in an English context:"The test for political parties over the next few years is whether they can make the tough decisions that protect the frontline. It's clear from our plans to create real rights and guarantees in the NHS that we will do this. Why are the Tories so unwilling?Why do they want to scrap even the most basic guarantees?

"That is the question they must answer if anyone is to believe they are serious about protecting frontline services.In schools, the same principle is being applied where the Tories are proposing to drop the SATS test in the last year of primary school. Accountability to parents is to be sacrificed in favour of the producer interest. It’s part of the same unspoken pact."

Leaving aside advice on accountability from the unelected House of Lords, that may be a line to remember the next time Gordon Brown's cabinet drops by west of Offa's Dyke.

Back to school

A slightly worrying pledge from the Conservatives to make the local school on my adopted manor "one of the best secondary's in the country".

Hopefully, the school in question will one day be good enough to teach its pupils about apostrophes and plurals.

UPDATE: Zac Goldsmith, for it is he, tells me with a generosity of spirit not always found in politics: "Thank you for pointing this out. As an editor for more than 10 years, I ought to have avoided this one...!"

The first snub of September?

It's that time of year again. A hefty document lands on the doormat to quel that almost tangible sense of anticipation.

But enough about the new Argos catalogue, the equally lengthy agenda for the Liberal Democrat conference has also arrived amid no less excitement.

Students of Welsh politics who plough through A fresh start for Britain - Choosing a different, better future, will be quick to spot one of those "snubs to Wales" that punctuate the political landscape.

This is, says Nick Clegg, "one of our most important conferences ever". But there is no space on the conference platform for the new leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Kirsty Williams.

There is a speaking slot for her Scottish counterpart, Tavish Scott MSP, but Ms Williams is likely to be seen but not heard in the conference hall.

Party officials deny that this is response to the Lib Dems' 5th place in the European elections in Wales and say Ms W had a starring role at their spring gathering even if that was largely ignored by a weary media suffering from conference fatigue.

UPDATE: The Lib Dems now say their Welsh leader will be "summating" a debate on devolution on the Sunday morning, and will therefore be heard as well as seen in the conference hall even if she is denied a keynote platform role.

Street wise

Cardiff already has a Lloyd George Avenue and a James Callaghan Square. Future generations will doubtless be able to stroll along Rhodri Morgan Boulevard or Ieuan Wyn Jones Crescent.

A colleague reports that the "One Wales Agreement" coalition deal between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru has already been marked in the United States.

Perhaps it's time to commemorate the agreement closer to home. Coalition Close, anyone?

Sing when you're winning?

You can't take a day off in this game without missing some "historic" event.

Tomorrow, the Assembly Government tell us, Elin Jones will "make history" as she becomes the first WAG Minister to compete at the National Eisteddfod whilst in office.

Ms Jones is a member of Aberystwyth-based Côr ABC, who are competing for the top prize in the mixed choir competition at Bala.

She said: “Singing with Côr ABC has brought me a great deal pleasure over recent years. Not only does it provide me with a great social outlet, but the weekly practice sessions are also an opportunity to catch up on pieces of news and views in Aberystwyth."

Postcard from Srebrenica

The Prime Minister, we're told, is fitting in some voluntary work during his break from Downing Street.

He's not the only senior political figure getting involved in good deeds during the summer, as my photograph shows.

Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague travelled to Srebrenica, Bosnia as part of a Conservative Party social action project. Also pictured are Tobias EllwoodMP, Shazia Awam (party activist from Cardiff) and Baroness Warsi.

You can probably guess the source of two of the the two toys presented to a school for children with special needs.

Shazia Awan told me: "What struck me on the way in were two building right opposite the school that had been completely shelled- the deep scars of civil war still everywhere 15 years on.

"Spending time with the children was invaluable- their spirit was amazing and you cannot fail to be captivated by them."

Networking

There was a time in New Labour's recent history, when any slight deviance from the party line would be punished with a form of internal exile.

Collective responsibility - or at least the leader's diktat - ruled, in opposition as well as in government.

These days Ministers take to online networking sites to highlight Cabinet divisions:

This suggests Peter Hain, having been recalled by a Prime Minister in need of his campaigning skills, feels more confident in his second Cabinet career to question government policy, confident enough even to contradict the Home Secretary.

Others will have their own views on what this says of the strength of Gordon Brown's position at the moment.
UPDATE: A spokesman for Mr Hain tells me: "The link was accidentally uploaded without Peter Hain's knowledge and has now been removed".

True Brits?

Good news. MPs are sobering up.

Don't take my word for it; this is the analysis of Patrick Hannan in his new book A Useful Fiction: "The men seem to be a lot less drunk than they were in the days when I spent a lot of time at Westminster and, as far as it's possible to tell, less lecherous".

I suspect Patrick is right, if only because MPs no longer have to hang around until the small hours regularly waiting to vote. It's one of many enjoyable insights in a book whose subtitle is "Adventures in British Democracy".

Britishness means different things to different people, of course, whether for example you're an Islamic fundamentalist or a Scottish Prime Minister of a devolved United Kingdom. The book sets out to explore "the illusions and deceptions that lie behind the word itself" and what it means in "a nation in the grip of doubt and change" as the back cover blurb puts it.

Hannan argues that Britain is still recognisably what it was 40 years ago despite ever-present change, much of which has gone un-noticed, particularly by the people of England.

Change is not exclusively a recent, devolved phenomenon. "That in time of war, however inflated a war is to describe the Falklands campaign, a member of the public could go on television and rattle the Prime Minister over the sinking of the Belgrano, officially an enemy ship, showed you how much the world had changed", he argues. That televised rattling of Margaret Thatcher took place a year after the Falklands conflict but you get his point.

He is never afraid to point out when he feels an emperor is a bit short on clothing, in his usual entertaining way. The Prince of Wales won't enjoy the Hannan analysis of his views (perhaps Patrick should hide his MBE next time the Prince is in town).

He questions whether devolved administrations that lack the power to raise funds can call themselves "governments" even if they carry out tasks performed in England by the UK Government.

He writes of the Welsh Assembly debating chamber: "of an afternoon it's quite possible to find yourself alone in the press gallery, often an entirely appropriate reflection on the quality of debate on offer."

The book takes a timely dip in the Barnett formula waters, raising questions of accountability for institutions that can always blame others for perceived funding shortfalls. (Ed Balls, one of Gordon Brown's closest allies has made the case for giving the Welsh Assembly tax-raising powers to close that accountability gap).

Without some of the chippiness sometimes seen in the debate, he notes how sparsely news outlets other than the BBC cover Wales. One of the paradoxes of a growth of Welsh identity has been a stubborn reluctance to buy newspapers that feature Welsh news. The Western Mail now sells fewer than half the copies it sold a quarter of a century ago.

The book was completed just before the juiciest detail of the MPs' expenses scandal emerged, but Hannan presciently dwells on the issue and links it to the development of a burgeoning political class and the growing distance between the elected and the electors.

A distance reflected by the inability of many MPs who "couldn't see that not breaking the rules was not enough, that it didn't mean there was no sharp practice involved". (A fair point, even if it risks driving some of these sober, monastic legislators to drink.)

In theory, a discredited parliament opens up a gap in the people's affections for a new institution they can trust. Hannan quotes Peter Hain in pointing out that 80 per cent of registered under-35s didn't vote in the last Welsh Assembly elections. I still find that figure staggering; perhaps it will fall next time if people turn away from Westminster politics over expenses.

So where will the adventures in British democracy end? The book concludes with an analysis of Enoch Powell's views and career, including a very funny explanation of how Powell managed to appear to speak Welsh in TV studios.

He argues that despite Powell's apocalyptic predictions of violent racial tensions, the former Tory MP would still recognise today's Britain as the same country in which he made his notorious "rivers of blood" speech in 1968.

Northern Ireland, where Powell found a political home, is offered as an example of the riskiness of political predictions, but it's a fair bet that should the UK Government change hands next year Hannan will be able to pack his bags for fresh adventures in a Britain where, as he puts it, "the builders are still at work".

A Useful Fiction by Patrick Hannan (Seren, £9.99)

You Tube if you want to

Gordon Brown's appearances on YouTube have not always shown the Prime Minister at ease with the world.

But that hasn't put him off, although he appears to have hired a new presenter/reporter. (Don't give up the day job, Peter)

There was something about the last part of the tape that was strangely familiar.

Then I realised it was an answer the PM gave me during our brief "interview" after the Cabinet awayday, filmed over my shoulder by someone from No 10.

Summertime

The MPs have left Westminster, some for the beaches, others for Closer magazine.

For the hacks left behind, there is the odd crumb of a story - Esther Rantzen's political career is taking off again today - and a chance to muse on the issues of the day.

You may think that it's summer and life is too short to discuss the Barnett Formula, but before the Cabinet awayday to Cardiff is forgotten I thought I'd share the Prime Minister's views on the way the devolved institutions are funded.

This is Gordon Brown's take on the formula in the light of recent reports suggesting it is too generous to Scotland but short-changes Wales:

"The principle of spending allocation in the UK is that we allocate resources according to need. The Barnett formula has been the traditional means that we do it. If any changes are needed in the Barnett formula as a result of these reviews, we'll look at this. But I think Rhodri Morgan has said himself that spending in Wales by the Assembly has doubled over the last few years.

"And we've made it possible for wales to have better health pieces, better schools and better spending on the infrastructures of transport and policeing on which we depend, and so we will continue to ensure that spending is allocated fairly according to need."

That was Mr Brown's answer to the second question in a two-question "interview" he gave at the end of the awayday. His definition of "need" would be challenged by many critics of a population-based formula.

So what will change? He doesn't appear in a hurry to rush to his constituents to explain why they should get less public spending to help the under-funded Welsh.

The Conservatives, who hope to take power within a year, have occasionally made noises about changing the formula but despite the imminence of a general election have yet to spell out what they would do in this area, as in so many others.

At this rate, the formula will outlive the sprightly Lord Barnett himself.

Hey Big Spender

As if a billion pounds for a new electric rail line were not enough, Gordon Brown has also promised to sponsor my friends and colleagues Jamie Owen and Louise Elliott in their Cardiff half marathon run.

They've promised to let me know if the Prime Minister doesn't cough up the cash.

Trainspotting

Gordon Brown let the train take the strain this morning as his Cabinet arrived in south Wales for their awayday.

The big announcement, trailed yesterday, is the go-ahead for electrification of the rail line between London and Swansea.

Everyone sees it as good news, although the Tories have questioned the cost - would they scrap the plan if they win power?

Plaid Cymru have been trying very hard - perhaps two hard - to persuade us that it was their Transport Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones, who persuaded the UK Government to cough up the cash.

Mr Jones was at Cardiff Central for the arrival of the prime ministerial express, bearing UK Transport Secretary Lord Adonis.

The two enjoy a good working relationship and were soon deep in conversation on platform three. They'd left their anoraks at home but there was an air of trainspotters' convention about the meeting.

Any political trainspotters hanging around would have spotted Lord Mandelson and the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, getting off the train accompanied by various officials and spin doctors.

Gordon Brown left his carriage accompanied by Rhodri Morgan, a surprise to those of us who assumed the First Minister was based in Cardiff.

Apparently Mr Morgan was driven to Newport station this morning so he could have a chat with the PM on the train during the 17-minute journey to Cardiff.

Nothing to do with wanting to be captured on camera arriving alongside the PM.

I was on my best behaviour so resisted the temptationt to shout out: "Have you come far, First Minister?"

The age of the train?

Back in those heady punk rock days of 1977, when the Barnett formula was just a glint in a Treasury Minister's eye, you could travel from Cardiff to Paddington by rail in one hour 45 minutes.

The same journey will take me slightly more than two hours later today. Even when new trains arrive in 2015, it's estimated the journey will still be slightly longer than more than thirty years ago.

But cheer up. The Guardian reports today, accurately as I understand it, that the Cardiff to London rail line will be electrified.

The paper focuses on the environmental benefits of the project although it also suggests quicker and more reliable services could result.

The downside is that the work could take place over 10 years and the Severn Tunnel, in particular, may present an engineering challenge. Weekend travellers should perhaps prepare for the scenic route option for the foreseeable future.

School's out!

Nearly there. Just a few more hours until MPs depart for 82 days of fact-finding, bonding with their constituents and the odd well-deserved holiday.

Are they demob-happy or simply relieved to reach the end of a pretty gruesome term for MPs? Gordon Brown has described the expenses affair as the most serious scandal to affect Parliament for more than two centuries. (Worse than Lloyd George selling peerages?)

That hasn't stopped MPs having a close look at media expenses. Ann Clwyd, whose one expenses claims are beyond reproach, asked in the Commons yesterday: "Is it not a fact that the BBC would have more money to improve coverage and content if it spent less public money on excessive salaries and excessive expenses?"

I nearly fell into my moat when I heard that question. My own expenses for July total so far £3.20, and I can't claim the money back until I reach the minimum claim of £20. Don't worry, I'll cope.

The Prime Minister appeared more relaxed than you might expect as he mingled among his guests in the Downing Street garden last night. You might think it's quite decent of him to invite the hacks in given the sort of press he's endured during the last year.

The No 10 garden is surprisingly large and now features not only a playhouse but also a large trampoline, probably for the Brown offspring, although I like the idea of the PM chilling out by bouncing up and down outside the Cabinet room. It may explain his relaxed state.

If he bounced high enough he could have spotted a protester from North Wales playing Patagonian Welsh music through a loudspeaker on top of his estate car during a tour of Whitehall.

The idea was to protest at the recent refusal to allow Patagonian Welsh learners to visit the UK. The music didn't exactly get MPs dancing in the aisles but they may have got the point.

Democratic renewal

Gordon Brown may have become Prime Minister without the hassle of an election, but that bastion of democracy, the House of Lords is a bit fussy about these democratic niceties.

So congratulations to Lord Aberdare, the newest member of the upper House. One of the ironies of the half-reformed House of Lords is that the only elected members are the owners of hereditary titles.

Lord Aberdare, or Alastair John Lyndhurst Bruce as he's doubtless known to his mates in the Cynon Valley Historical Society, takes the seat left vacant by the death crossbench hereditary peer Viscount Bledisloe.

Lord Aberdare is the son of the 4th Baron, a former Conservative Minister who was an ace real tennis player and former chairman of the Football Trust.

The newly-elected peer is a former trustee of the National Botanic Garden of Wales and a fellow of Cardiff University.

Party animals

Peter Hain's Wales Office summer party in Whitehall last night had a distinctly retro feel to it.

Nye Bevan's mini-statue had been restored to its position alongside the ANC Mandela poster above the mantelpiece after 15 months in exile from government.

The guest list was a reminder of those who had worked with the Neath MP during his time at Gwydyr House, in Northern Ireland and on his Labour deputy leadership campaign. One former spin doctor described it as "a gathering of the living dead".

There was the odd celebrity or two at what was a thoroughly enjoyable gathering. As someone who played a pivotal role in the Northern Ireland peace process, Peter Hain is also one of the few people capable of bringing Lembit Opik and Sian Lloyd together in the same room even if the de-commissioning process there has somne way to go.

There was even a Manic Street Preacher - of the musical (James Dean Bradfield) rather than the Lord Roberts of Llandudno kind.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan denied she was measuring up for curtains ahead of the general election.

Her superstition about victory extends to declining all offers to spell out what she would do in the Wales Office. I forgot to ask whether she'd replace Nye Bevan with a likeness of Margaret Thatcher, although I suspect the answer would be "wait and see" (it usually is).

Taxpayers will be relieved to discover that the menu reflected the austerity of the times rather than the apparent approach of those International Business Wales civil servants who turn left on planes at our expense.

Catering was in-house, provided by civil servants. After 12 years of canape culture under New Labour, guests were offered a choice between crisps and peanuts.

John Redwood, one of Peter Hain's more frugal predecessors, would have been proud.

Banking on the MoD?

The Ministry of Defence has done its best to do what the Wales Office couldn't do - and answer questions about the prospects for the defence training academy at St Athan.

Apparently the banking situation and "the evolving situation in Afghanistan" are responsible for delays in the planning stages of the project.

The scheme is expected to go before an MoD review board for approval next February, almost a year later than scheduled.

In the light of Afghanistan, the programme is being adjusted to ensure British troops receive "relevant" training.

A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: "Despite some delays to the planning stages of the DTR project, there is currently no change to the end date and final contracts remain scheduled to be signed in the summer of 2010."

Perhaps the key word there is "scheduled". Voters will notice the proximity of "the summer of 2010" to the next general election. Cheryl Gillan may find herself answering rather than asking questions before the academy is built.

How To Avoid Answering the Question

Cheryl Gillan took time off from wittering during Welsh Questions to ask a specific question about the proposed defence training academy at St Athan in the Vale of Glamorgan.

The project, to centralise services training, has seen several delays since it was first announced and there are growing questions over its future.

This was Cheryl Gillan's question to the Wales Office Minister Wayne David: "The defence training project at St Athan would bring huge opportunities to Wales.

"Can the Minister confirm that the Secretary of State is co-ordinating with the Ministry of Defence is co-ordinating with the Ministry of Defence and that the pre-contract agreement letter will be issued to the preferred bidder this week, on time, on the 17th of July, or will this be delayed by the Government?"

Wayne David's reply: "Can I say that the honourable lady is absolutely correct in stressing the importance of this investment to Wales.

"It will be the largest single investment in the Welsh economy that there's ever been and the defence technical college will be of tremendous benefit not only to the Welsh economy but obviously to the armed forces of the United Kingdon.

"My right honourable friend the Secretary of State fully recognises the importance of this. he's had discussions with the Secretary of State for Defence and they're going forward together and he can be absolutely assured that we recognise the importance of this project for Wales as a whole."

Warm words, but not exactly an answer to the question asked.

Wittering for Wales

Can there be a better post-holiday pre-recess treat than Welsh Questions in the House of Commons?

Peter Hain and his deputy Wayne David fielded MPs' questions for the last time today before MPs disappear for their long summer recess.

Today was John Bercow's first Welsh Questions in the chair and the new Speaker wasted little time before making his mark.

He demanded shorter questions and pithy replies of MPs and Ministers.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan was a prime target, finding herself accused of "wittering".

Mr Bercow told MPs: "There is a practice growing up of the opposition front bench asking a question and then wittering away from a sedentary position - it's not acceptable and I don't want it to happen again."

It didn't, although the Speaker did have to tell MPs to tone down the noise at one point, something due rather more to anticipation of Prime Minister's Question Time than excitement at Welsh Questions.

And there was still time for Peter Hain to quip of Cheryl Gillan: "At least she wasn't twittering in the House." These silver surfers yield to no-one in their ability to get down with da kidz online.

No more blogging for a week or two

Blogging may be a little lighter than usual during the next 10 days as I'm taking a short seaside break.

Radio Wales listeners should not adjust their set if they do not hear my voice at 6.35am.

On past form, some major political event will happen in my absence although hopefully my employers will have a Cessna standing by should my immediate return from Bognor Regis be required.

I will of course interrupt my family holiday to bring you the latest news should there be an unexpected triumph in the knobbly knees competition.

Hi di Hi!

Happy Anniversary

We love anniversaries in journalism. It's 40 years today since the Prince of Wales was invested, if that's the right phrase.

It's two years this week since Labour and Plaid Cymru coalesced in Cardiff Bay. It's two - very long years - since Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair.

It's approaching the first anniversary of the last Welsh Conservative news conference at Westminster (or maybe it just feels like that).

It's 10 years today since power was devolved from Westminster to Edinburgh and Cardiff.

That means it's also the 10th anniversary of the Wales Office, where Peter Hain - Secretary of State for more than half that time - says they are busier than ever before.

Ten years ago, on what we could call D-Day, Mr Hain was a junior Welsh Office Minister. One day he was making key decisions on Welsh schools, the next he was metaphorically twiddling his thumbs as the education brief, along with others, was transferred along the M4.

The artist Mumph drew a cartoon of Mr Hain and a fellow junior Minister playing battleships in the power-free zone that their department became. It may have been a slight exaggeration, although those present at the time recall a surreal post-devolution atmosphere before Welsh Ministers found a new role at Westminster.

In those days, if anyone mentioned LCOs you might confuse it with a breakfast cereal or supermarket. These days they are the stuff of casual conversation in pubs up and down the land. Well, perhaps not.

The 10th wedding anniversary is normally marked by presents of aluminium or tin. I'll leave you to come up with suitable gifts for the Wales Office on its big day.

Too busy

I confess I don't always get the Wrexham Leader in Westminster, although a contact has e-mailed me a page from tonight's edition.

Headlined 'Too busy' to worry about expense claim, it explains why the North Wales Assembly Member Eleanor Burnham is not terribly concerned by her position as the second highest-claiming AM.

“I’m too busy looking after my constituents to bother about expenses tables," she says.

“I believe I am very good value for money. Perhaps we should now look at the expenses of people working in the higher echelons of the BBC.”

I don't quite see the link, but then I only operate in the lower echelons of the BBC. Perhaps Ms Burnham's claim will kill off the wicked rumour that AMs elected on the regional list system have rather less to do than their colleagues.

Time out

Just occasionally, for good behaviour, I'm allowed out of Westminster. I was recently despatched to see Lord Snowdon, who was happy to share his memories of the 40th anniversary of the investiture of the Prince of Wales.

Lord Snowdon's role as constable of Caernarfon Castle was to organise the ceremony. Whatever you think of the monarchy - or the investiture - it was fascinating to hear the memories of a key player at the time.

You can read and hear more here. Lord Snowdon is a little frail these days but was very generous with his time.

He also find time to have a chat about photography after the interview and sign a book of his photographs for me. I really should get out more.

Planted questions

Another 41 Conservative MPs have signed cheques to repay expenses in David Cameron's latest exercise in transparency - or self-flagellation as some of the MPs might call it.

Among those to have reached for their chequebook, the Tory MP for Monmouth, David Davies, who can fairly claim to be a consistent questioner of the way our taxes are used.

He had the novel idea of setting up his own independent panel to vet his expenses. That panel queried two items - a council tax rebate and a claim for mortgage interest. The Tories' own independent scrutiny committee questioned a £12 invoice for a plant pot.

"I fully accept that these claims should not have been made and repaid them immiediately. To those who will inevitably suggest that I might have tried to do this to gain a financial benefit I think it only fair to point out that both the fees office and the independent panel have seen that I underclaimed on a number of items."

So David Davies will find himself £2,033.87 poorer and could be forgiven if he has second thoughts about setting up his own independent panel.

To add to his woes, he can't recall or trace the plant pot.

DAF or Daft?

There's almost enough jargon in this Welsh Assembly Government press release for a whole board game.....

"The Deprived Area Fund (DAF) was set up by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) to reduce unemployment in the most disadvantaged areas of the UK. The fund in Wales is already being delivered by JobCentre Plus and the DWP's City Strategy Pathfinders. For the next two years a portion will also be routed through two new partnerships - the Mon Menai Partnership and South West Wales Spatial Plan Economic Inactivity Partnership. Together the new partnerships will receive £3.4 million of DAF grant from DWP to help people in their most deprived communities to obtain and retain employment."

Grand plan

Bad news for those of you who had already made travel and accommodation plans, but the Welsh Grand Committee meeting for July 8 has been cancelled.

Welsh Secretary Peter Hain announced yesterday that the committee, made up of the 40 MPs from Wales and Cheryl Gillan, would meet to discuss plans to give the National Assembly the power to make laws on the Welsh language.

It would have been the first time that the committee had discussed a Legislative Competence Order (LCO).

The meeting was cancelled on the intervention of the chair of another Welsh committee - the Select Committee on Welsh Affairs - Hywel Francis.

He complained to Mr Hain that the (grand) committee would not have had time to consider his (select) committee's report on the Welsh Language LCO.

That report is said to be "imminent" and should be finalised next week, but will take seven days to print. So the Welsh Grand is postponed for another day.

Dr Francis says: "I have informed him (Peter Hain) that he will need to consult with me and the opposition parties before a Welsh Grand Committee can meet to discuss my Committee's Report."

That's the Secretary of State told, then. Dr Francis says: "Peter accepts it was a mistake for him to choose the date without consulting me."

The Wales Office says it did try to consult Dr Francis but struggled to contact him after he lost his mobile phone.

Jargon!

Jargon is one of the curses of modern life, a view I'd hold even if I wasn't trying to discover what "portrayal targets" are for my own BBC appraisal.




So hats off to Elly Chesterman, who has invented a board game - Jargon! - to help children settle into foster home.


Elly, from Wrexham, has spent 15 years as a foster carer - one of the unsung army who play such important roles helping vunerable youngsters.


Her board game has seen Elly short-listed for British Female Inventor or Innovator of the Year 2009.


She says: "A lot of jargon is used – we talk about respite care, educational needs, placements which can sound like a foreign language. We say a child has a contact visit with her grandmother when as far as the child is concerned she’s seeing her Nan".

Elly's idea has the support of the taxpayer-funded Welsh Innovators Network. I look forward to the spin-off game to explain some of the jargon used by politicians.

It could help the voters understand what they mean by "stakeholders", "task and finish groups", "service delivery", "patient pathway" and all the other impenetrable phrases loved by those who rule over us.

Work-free homes

There may be lies, damned lies and statistics but some figures continue to shock.

The Office for National Statistics revealed today that almost a quarter (23 per cent) of children in London live in homes where no-one works.

In Wales, the comparable figure is 18 per cent. The UK average is 15 per cent.

Bercow takes his bow

He couldn't stop smirking - and who could blame him? John Bercow looked rather pleased with himself as he made his way to the Speaker's chair for the first full day in the job.

Fashion experts will recall that he wore a normal suit and academic-style gown, without the train favoured by his predecessor. I don't recall Michael Martin wearing tights, although others do, but Mr Speaker Bercow went for trousers.

One or two Tory MPs thought his tie was a little bright and will have to go. Sir George Young (who has been more graceful in defeat than some of his supporters) might have chosen a quieter option.

But Mr Speaker Bercow got into his stride, with an early appeal for brevity from Ministers and backbench MPs. He may be a small man, but he has a very tall voice which helps avoid the risk of the Speaker's chair dwarfing his frame.

Another test lies ahead, when Commons leader Harriet Harman makes a statement on the new code of conduct for MPs. Will the Speaker shut her up on the grounds that Gordon Brown has already been touring broadcast studios talking about the same subject?

And tomorrow, he referees his first Prime Minister's Question Time. You can bet he's looking forward to it. As someone once said of another Tory, I have seen the future and it smirks.

ICANN do down under

MPs haven't had a good press of late, but some of them seem to be working too hard to spend their generous allowances.

Alun Michael, the workaholic former cabinet Minister and First Secretary, spent the weekend in Australia, leaving the UK last Thursday, returning Monday at 7am.

Those hoping for some paparrazi photos of the Cardiff South and Penarth MP sunning himself poolside in Sydney will be disappointed.

Mr Michael, who played a key role in the setting up of the UK Internet Governmance Forum, was a guest speaker at the 35th meeting of the jazzily-titled Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN).

As chair of the judging panel for the UK Internet Best Practice Challenge (a fun job, but someone's got to do it), he was guest speaker at the launch of the "2009 Australia and New Zealand Internet Best Practice Award".

Perhaps next time they could hold the conference and launch online and save on the jetlag.

The votes are being counted

The Radio Wales studio (two picnic chairs and a table) is still going strong on a patch of grass in between Westminster Abbey and the House of Commons.

Luckily, things have warmed up and Good Evening Wales presenter Gareth Lewis has not had to borrow the toe-warming canvas bag used earlier by his colleague Bethan Rhys Roberts (full marks, Peter Black and Tomos Livingstone, who also spotted the legs of Paul Flynn MP).

The Commons clerks are currently counting the votes in the historic first secret ballot for the Speakership.

Speeches from the 10 candidates were mercifully brief, and most added to their reputation.

An enterprising man from Ladbrokes is touring the outside broadcast points with a small blackboard bearing the latest odds. Sir George Young is the current 6/4 favourite.

Mystery Legs Competition

It's a bit cold of an early morning in Westminster and this Radio Wales presenter found a novel way of keeping their legs warm. No prizes, but top marks if you can identify the legs - and those of the more conventionally shod MP in the picture.

Community payback

The House of Commons has published a list of allowances repayments "voluntarily" submitted by MPs. You can read it here.

By my calculations, 14 of the 40 Welsh MPs have repaid some cash - and that doesn't include one or two who told their constituents they would pay back money but whose donations have yet to reach the public purse.

Whisky Galore

The way things have been going for Gordon Brown's Government, you could understand why its Ministers have been driven to drink.

The Ogmore MP Huw Irranca-Davies, a junior Environment Minister, billed us taxpayers £150 for a case of House of Commons whisky.

The whisky was intended as raffle prizes in his constituency. He'll now be paying back the cash after what he calls the indefensible error came to light with the publication of MPs' expenses.

David Davies, the Tory MP for Monmouth, has been explaining how he used a family business to produce leaflets at a cost to the taxpayer of almost £2,000.

He says the work by Newport-based Burrow Heath was done at cost and neither he nor his family profited from the deal.

Other intriguing expense claims include the £100 Justice Minister David Hanson billed us to sponsor a Flint Town United football match. Let's hope local voters don't feel as sick as parrots after that one.

We're still working our way through the receipts. What's striking is how many MPs, having billed us for digital cameras, appear to have charged us hundreds of pounds for PR photos of themselves.

Colonial corner

Most Westminster reporters are spending today working our way through MPs' expenses, or at least the heavily-censored version available on the parliamentar website.

While there, why not drop into Hansard for this written exchange between Plaid Cymru's Adam Price and the new Foreign Office Minister Chris Bryant.

Price: "To ask the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs if he will seek the addition of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to the UN's list of territories in the process of decolonisation."

Bryant: "The arrangements of Chapter XI of the UN Charter (Declaration regarding Non-Self Governing Territories) relate to former colonies for the purposes of domestic and international law. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are part of the UK.

"As far as the overseas territories are concerned we remain committed to modernising our relationship with them, while fully taking into account the views of the peoples of the Territories."

Tories oppose spending cuts

You may remember the outrage among opposition parties when it emerged that the Wales Office budget was to rise by 80 per cent one year.

There is now similar outrage about plans to cut the same budget by more than half next year.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan says: "At a time of austerity, all departments need to think about how they can save the taxpayer money, but Labour need to come clear about their plans and stop treating people like fools.

"Peter Hain promises that there will be real increases in government departments’ spending, when he must know his own department’s budget is being halved.”

Mrs Gillan also complains that the Wales Office will now bear the full cost of Mr Hain's salary - in his previous incarnation there the bill was picked up by the Department for Work and Pensions.

The amounts involved are relatively insignificant - something like £3.6m in a Welsh settlement of around £16bn (the figures refer to his office costs not the Hain salary!).

The Wales Office points out that it also paid Mr Hain's predecessor, Paul Murphy. A spokesman says: "This was a three-year settlement dating back to the Government's last Comprehensive Spending Review of 2007, which included a substantial increase in the Wales Office budget for the first two years.

"Planned efficiency savings over the first and current financial years were always anticipated to give us the resources necessary for spending needs in the final year, 2010/11. Nothing has changed."

The disputed figures cover the next financial year, by then the Conservatives hope to take power: no news yet on how much the budget would be under a Cameron government.

Demob-happy Speaker

There are two types of leaving speeches: one says "thank you, it's been marvellous, goodbye" and the other hints to varying degrees of bitterness at the real reason for leaving.

Michael Martin blended both types in his valedictory address to the Commons - all 24 minutes of it.

There was plenty of self-justification as he reminded MPs what he had brought to the job, before blaming them for the scandal that brought his downfall.

The Speaker may have been forced out because of his perceived slowness to respond to the issue but he criticised the response of MPs to proposals last year that would have banned them from using public money to buy household goods for their second homes and introduced tighter checks on spending.

"The response from this House was deeply disappointing. Half of the members did not attend to vote, and more than half of those who did vote rejected the proposals. I regretted that then. I deeply regret that now.

"And I suspect that many members of this House share my regret. Of course, the recommendations would not have solved every difficulty, but they would have ended many practices for which members have been attacked in recent weeks."

Having blamed the leaders of the three main parties here for failing to show leadership, it was then time for those three leaders to pay tribute to the first Speaker ousted for more than 300 years.

Nick Clegg faced the trickiest task, having been the only party leader to call on Mr Martin to resign. He confined himself to warm words about the Speaker's human qualities rather than his competence in the job.

After almost two hours basking in the tributes, Mr Martin said it reminded him of a farewell dinner for a long-serving councillor in Glasgow.

"So many good things were said he stood up and said I didn't realise how much you liked me and I think I'll stay on - but I can tell you your Speaker's demob-happy."

Celebrity matters

It's more than two years ago since the end of the Blair era was marked by predictions that a cultural shift away from the age of celebrity was on the way.

Indeed, one of those hoping to take advantage of this shift, told The Guardian:

"I think we're moving from this period when, if you like, celebrity matters, when people have become famous for being famous. I think you can see that in other countries too - people are moving away from that to what lies behind the character and the personality."

People may well be moving away from that, although recent photo-opportunities with footballers and other appointments - Sir Alan Sugar as a business adviser - suggests the Prime Minister is embracing celebrity culture.

This afternoon it was revealed that Martha Lane Fox will become Britain's "digital inclusion champion".

Ms Lane Fox is be a successful businesswoman in her own right. You can hear her for yourself if you book her via Celebrity Speakers.

Perhaps celebrity matters after all.

Missing in action

You may or may not be worried that 31 taxpayer-funded laptops, 10 Blackberries and six mobile phones have gone missing while in the carry of Welsh Assembly Government officials during the next three years.

The Lib Dems are very concerned about the possible loss of sensitive data, although they may be re-assured by an Assembly Government statement, which says no personal or sensitive data has been put at risk by the loss.

The statement comes from a spokesman for the Welsh Assembly Government's Director General, (People, Places & Corporate Services).

By the time you've got that job title on your hard drive, there isn't much space left for any personal or sensitive data.

As if he'd never been away.....

It was just like old times at the Wales Office. The "Mandela for President" ANC poster had been restored to its place above the fireplace, although I struggled to spot the Nye Bevan statuette.

Peter Hain had his feet behind the Secretary of State's desk. Staff scurried around with an increased sense of purpose. One civil servant told me Mr Hain did more media interviews in his first week than Paul Murphy did in a year.

The media arrived for what you would have to term a wide-ranging briefing and left, almost an hour later, with notebooks bulging.

Digital Britain? Legislative Competence Orders? the Calman Commission? Labour's Welsh woes? The Neath MP had views on them all.

His views on the latter were rehearsed in today's Western Mail. He argues that Labour is performing worse in Wales than elsewhere - "It's not good enough just to blame it on Westminster and the expenses issue."

I did try to find out who he had in mind, who had been blaming Westminster and the expenses issue? I failed to persuade Mr Hain to name names, although you may have your own ideas.

On the Calman Commission, he suggested the Welsh Assembly could get to keep some tax revenues raised in Wales - the landfill tax and the aggregates levy - if similar powers are devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

On LCOs, he confirmed that the Assembly Government's housing plans were back on the drawing board, but hinted that it could ultimately acquire stronger powers.

As we left, civil servants entered the room carrying platefuls of crisps, nuts and other nibbles.

Had the head of the private office been promoted to butler under the new regime? Alas, not.

Besides the media, the Welsh Secretary was hosting 11 children with cancer and leukaemia from south Wales, for whom the spread was intended.

The children also got the chance to visit the Commons Speaker, Michael Martin, for one of his last engagements before he steps down at the end of this week.

They are currently visiting Downing Street, where the Chancellor's wife, Maggie Darling, is organising a tea party.

The children were marched up Downing Street by Welsh Guards and Queens Dragoon Guards in full ceremonial reds.

Unlike last year the soldiers left their regimental mascot - the goat, Shenkin - behind, sad news for the children although possibly not for the Wales Office cleaners.

Clerical corner

William Hague's suggestion that Lord Mandelson could be made an archbishop met this response from former vicar Chris Bryant: "I am sure that he would not suffice with an archbishopric; after all, archbishops can be fallible."

Archbishop Mandelson and William Hague's in-laws

Another former Welsh Secretary is turning into the star of the dissolution debate.

William Hague has been making the most of Gordon Brown's recent difficulties and the unstoppable rise of Peter Mandelson.

The Commons filled noticeably as Mr Hague spoke: "The unelected Prime Minister has managed to produce the most powerful unelected deputy since Henry VIII appointed Cardinal Wolsey except Cardinal Wolsey was more sensitive in his handling of colleagues than Lord Mandelson."

Lord Mandelson, said the former Tory leader, had gone around collecting titles and even whole government departments, with eleven Ministers working under him. Mr Hague read out the full list of titles:

"The right honourable the Baron Mandelson of Foy in the county of Heredfordshire and Hartlepool in the county of Durham, First Secretary of State and and Lord President of the Privy Council and Secretary of State for Business and Secretary of State for Innovation and Skills.

"It would be no surprise to wake up in the morning and find he'dbecome an Archbishop".

Mr Hague also gave another insight into Hague family life, in exchanges with Conwy MP Betty Williams.

"I'm not afraid of any lady from Wales, other than my mother-in-law."

Myra Jenkins's response is not yet known.

Peter's Friends

As comebacks go, it was relatively low key. "It's nice to be back," said Peter Hain, as he spoke from the despatch box for the first time in 17 months.

"Even though my appointment was marked by an earthquake a few miles from my home."

Having spent the past week elsewhere, I was prepared for parliamentary tumult after so many turbulent days.

Then I remembered: nah, it's Welsh Questions. Question Time turned into something of a love-in, with everyone apparently pleased to see Mr Hain back in charge.

Even Plaid Cymru's parliamentary leader, Elfyn Llwyd, a past critic of the Neath MP, welcomed him back.

His past and present shadow, Cheryl Gillan, found some warm words for the man axed to make way for Mr Hain's return.

"In welcoming the return of the new Secretary of State, I also want to express my admiration for his predecessor.

"I've enjoyed working with Mr Murphy, a decent and straightforward man.

"We will miss his common sense and dedication to Wales, and I wonder what sort
of Prime Minister we have who could so easily dispense with his services."

Lembit Opik told the Commons Mr Hain should not have had to stand down in the first place.

Mr Hain gave every appearance of enjoying his comeback. As I write, he's leading for the Government in a lively debate on Plaid Cymru's attempt to force a general election.

"Low turnout at elections is the clearest sign that the British people are not engaged with the political process: that is our fault and not theirs. We seem obsessed with procedure and tribal party politics and now the public think MPs are all in this for our own ends."

Low turn-out isn't confined to voters: I'd guesstimate that barely 10 per cent of MPs have turned up for the debate.

A volunteer no more

No wonder he's smiling. Having toiled as Harriet Harman's
deputy for the past eight months, Chris Bryant has finally been put on the Government payroll.

The newly-promoted Foreign Office Minister will be around £30,000 a year richer after Gordon Brown completed his reshuffle of junior government posts.

Although once known as an ultra-Blairite, the Rhondda MP was among those involved in the coup against Tony Blair in late 2006.

Others involved in the coup against Blair, such as Wayne David and Mark Tami, have prospered in a Brown Government, although Mr Tami also had to get by on his backbencher's salary for a while.

Another who resigned as an (unpaid) parliamentary aide in the Blair administration, Ian Lucas, was today promoted from assistant whip to junior Minister in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills under the unofficial deputy PM Lord Mandelson.

As the Wrexham MP puts it: “It will be very exciting to work with Lord Mandelson and other colleagues in the department."

BNP: at home in Wales?

Now things have quietened down a bit, I'm being sent back to Westminster. Do let me know if I've missed anything important.

The reason for my temporary exile from SW1 can be found here. I've spent some time following the BNP around Wales, which for some reason is home to several figures from the party leadership.

During the last few weeks, we've been accused by anti-BNP campaigners of going soft on the party. A member of the programme's production team received two death threats after his details appeared on a blog published by a member of the BNP's leadership.

Do tune in, or watch the programme online, and make your own mind up.

Right place, right time

A surreal night spent in a tin barn just outside Haverfordwest.

The location of the national Welsh European election count was not perhaps the best advert for 21st century Wales - no broadband and the results read against an anonymous grey backdrop that passed up the opportunity to advertise the delights of Pembrokeshire.

For once, given my recent luck, it felt as if I was in the vicinity of the story. Twelve years ago, when the Tories were wiped off the map in Wales, no-one would have predicted a comeback that would see them as the largest party.

Labour will take some consolation that the low turn-out suggests their voters disproportionately stayed at home, but the Conservatives will also hope to reclaim some Euro-sceptic votes from UKIP at the next general election.

There was a long wait for the results, filled by spin from the political parties. Plaid Cymru, assuming they'd come second, tried to persuade us that this was a significant development as they would be the leading party of the left. They stopped spinning this analysis when the votes came in and they came third.

Labour blamed the expenses scandal for their woes, although tales of duck houses, moats and dog food on the taxpayer don't appear to have damaged the Tories. The silver lining for Labour is that they can more credibly warn voters of a Conservative threat at the general election - the danger for Labour is that the electorate may not longer be scared by that prospect.

UKIP's success appeared to take them by surprise, their winning candidate struggling to give the impression that gaining election to the European Parliament was a lifetime's ambition achieved.

UKIP may have swept up the anti-politician vote after the expenses scandal but it also suggests that not every voter in Wales views politics through a Welsh prism.

But it's the Tories who are wearing the biggest smiles today after the collapse of the Labour vote allowed them to claim victory with only two per cent more of the vote than last time. As I write, David Cameron is heading for Cardiff to join in the party.

Back to the future

With what has become an uncanny gift for being in the wrong place at the wrong time, I'm in Cardiff today, working on a documentary about the BNP, rather than in Westminster.

So I'll leave the predictions to my colleagues closer to the action. There is a natural justice in Peter Hain's return after the police investigation into his deputy leadership campaign came to nothing. His Wales Office comeback will certainly raise its profile in the run-up to the general election.

But there will be widespread sympathy among Labour MPs at the sacking of Paul Murphy. He appears to have done nothing wrong, other than replacing his boiler on safety grounds.

The Torfaen MP left government with a typically gracious statement: "I have been very proud to have served in Gordon Brown's Cabinet for the past seventeen months, and I fully support his remaining as our Prime Minister."

It will be left to the newly-reshuffled Cabinet to explain Labour's performance in the European elections when the votes are counted on Sunday.

With an all-Wales turnout of 30.5 per cent, the potential for some interesting results is certainly there (an observation, not a prediction!).

Question Time

A silver lining amid the gathering storm clouds? Prime Minister's Question Time was not as bad as some Labour MPs feared and no Minister has resigned for, ooh, several hours now.

Gordon Brown was calm throughout his half-hour in the Commons, offering magnanimous words for his departing Ministers despite provocation from the opposition parties.

Hazel Blears' resignation offered David Cameron an open goal. He said what you'd expect him to say. It felt as if Mr Cameron was pulling the odd punch.

Perhaps the most worrying thing for Labour would be for the Tories to go soft on the PM in their desire to keep him in Downing Street rather than a more voter-friendly alternative such as Alan Johnson?

There are reports of MPs being canvassed about a "Gordon Must Go" letter that could be presented to Downing Street as early as tonight.

You'd think Labour MPs would be doing a different sort of canvassing today and I've failed to find a backbencher who's been asked to sign a letter.

That said, there are plenty of Labour MPs who are unhappy with Mr Brown's leadership. Expect more to say so publicly when the polls close tomorrow night,

Timing

Hazel Blears timed her resignation to have the greatest political impact, 24 hours before elections that may decide the Prime Minister's future.

Will she now try to stand against Gordon Brown? (It's not easy under Labour Party rules to challenge a leader, but she may gather support from those who want the PM out).

Her resignation statement contains not a single word of support for Mr Brown: "Today I have told the Prime Minister that I am resigning from the Government.

"My politics has always been rooted in the belief that ordinary people are
capable of extraordinary things, given the right support and encouragement.

"The role of a progressive Government should be to pass power to the people.

"I've never sought high office for the sake of it, or for what I can gain, but
for what I can achieve for the people I represent and serve.

"In this next phase of my political life I am redoubling my efforts to speak
up for the people of Salford as their Member of Parliament.

"I am returning to the grassroots (where I began), to political activism, to
the cut and thrust of political debate.

"Most of all I want to help the Labour Party to reconnect with the British
people, to remind them that our values are their values, that their hopes and
dreams are ours too.

"I am glad to be going home to the people who matter the most to me: the
people of Salford.

"Finally, there's an important set of elections tomorrow. My message is
simple: get out and vote Labour."

Business as usual

Business as usual here today......just the one ministerial resignation so far. Hazel Blears has resigned as Communities Secretary.

She may have jumped before Gordon Brown could push her over what he called "totally unacceptable" behaviour, but for a Cabinet Minister to quit 24 hours before the European and English local elections is pretty extraordinary.

Prime Minister's Questions at noon could be fun, for those who enjoy blood sports.

Heaven knows what the departing Ministers will say once the people have voted and the need for party unity is less pressing....

Election fever

You can't put an opposition MP in front of a camera at the moment without them demanding an immediate general election .

Next week they'll have the chance to vote for one. Plaid Cymru are to use their debating time in the Commons to call for a dissolution of Parliament.

Plaid and the SNP will use the debate to put pressure on Gordon Brown to hold a snap election.

Don't expect a massive turnout but it should be interesting to see how many turn up to vote for another encounter with the electors - particularly if any Labour MPs decide they really, really want an election now.

All the analysis you need

However many trees have been felled to bring you in-depth coverage of the expenses scandal, it's hard to beat the succinct analysis of ITN's political editor.

Tom Bradby's conclusion, as written in Total Politics magazine?

"A small minority of MPs has been completely and utterly taking the p***." [my asterisks]

It probably works better in print. Somehow I can't hear Tom saying it on air, before adding "and now back to you in the studio, Trevor".

Wrong place, wrong time

In journalism, as in the Manchester United penalty area, there's no substitute for being in the right place at the right time.

As the Commons Speaker fell on his sword for the first time in more than 300 years, I was more than 5,000 miles from Westminster, filming in South Africa.

I'd left these shores with the naive belief that the Chancellor was one person who would know how to fill in a tax return. Not for the first time this month, conventional assumptions have been challenged.

I returned to discover my taxes had been spent on duck islands, staff quarters, Farrow & Ball wallpaper, childcare for a Minister's staff and enough large screen TVs to keep several windfarms ticking over.

There was also a further shift in the political mood, with even those MPs who believed the media were setting themselves up as arbiters of morality now apologising for their role in a discredited system.

Julie Kirkbride is still hanging on as MP for Bromsgrove despite today's Telegraph headlines.

When politicians take to the airwaves to use "my little boy" as a justification for their use of public funds, you know they're in trouble. You wouldn't put your mortgage, taxpayer-funded or otherwise, on her survival hopes.

I returned in time to read Elfyn Llwyd's transparent explanation of his own expenses in yesterday's Daily Post.

Mr Llwyd stressed his frugality by telling the paper: "I live south of the river".

Those of us who find ourselves in the same geographically challenged situation look forward to the sympathy of MPs and perhaps the odd food parcel sent with a Meirionnydd postmark.

UPDATE: Julie Kirkbride has announced that she is standing down at the next election, as will the Labour MP Margaret Moran.

A moat point

One of the more creative responses to the expenses crisis is the idea from the Monmouth Conservative MP David Davies that an independent panel of individuals "above reproach" should vet his expenses.

Mr Davies suggested to a colleague of mine that I might be a suitable person to join the panel, even though I'm not a constituent.

I was briefly tempted by the prospect of rifling through an MP's receipts every now and again. I can well understand that the idea of a journalist vetting expenses may amuse some politicians.

Alas, I fear I shall have to decline - and not for the reason that he might seek reciprocal rights to check my own (rather modest) expenses.

I am, however, prepared to inspect Mr Davies's moat should he ever try to claim expenses for one.

I am filming away from Westminster for the next week, so blogging may be light to non-existent. I suspect one fewer hack around the place may cheer up MPs feeling (understandably) a bit down in the current atmosphere even if it reduces the opportunity for shooting the messenger.

Secret Santa revealed

The identity of the MP who allegedly claimed 59 pence on expenses for a chocolate Santa has been revealed by the Telegraph.

Sian James is not very happy with the Telegraph. She tells me it wasn't a Santa. It was a packet of chocolate coins for her nephew.

It appeared on a supermarket receipt submitted under the rules alongside other items legitimately claimed but was neither claimed for nor paid.

It may appear on the unredacted receipts obtained by the Telegraph but won't appear on the redacted ones to be published next week.

The Swansea One is innocent.

Bloodied but unbowed

This is the latest MP to be caught up in the expenses scandal, possibly bearing the scars of a painful encounter with the Conservative leadership after reading today's Telegraph.

Stephen Crabb is widely seen as a Tory high-flier, a rising star, and an assiduous constituency MP. His website tells how he and his family returned to settle in Pembrokeshire before the last general election.

Except we now know that his main home for some time was a rented property in London, not the home where Mrs Crabb and their children live outside Haverfordwest.

The Pembrokeshire house was officially Mr Crabb's second home, hence he was able to claim on his expenses £9,300 for the stamp duty paid in its purchase. The taxpayer paid for the interest on the mortgage he has on this home.

This is, of course, entirely within the rules, and Mr Crabb denies there was any financial motive behind his re-designation of his second home. Like Jacqui Smith and Hazel Blears, his second home has varied between his constituency and London. It is now his London flat once more.

All perfectly within the rules, although the Conservatives' new scrutiny panel may have the final say on this.

Mr Crabb issued a statement late last night in his defence:

"Every decision I have made about accommodation as Member of Parliament has been made with the explicit guidance of the Fees Office. Indeed, the switch of my designated second home from London to the constituency in October 2007 was actually suggested to me by an official in the Fees Office.

"At the time I was not just using a room in a flat rented by another MP in Westminster, as implied in the Daily Telegraph article, I was actually the joint-tenant on a fully commercial basis and shared all costs of the property.

"I reject the allegation of ‘flipping’ my London property to make a profit as a result of taxpayer-funded refurbishments. The flat I sold in August 2007 in South East London was bought by me in 1997.

"During the 12 months that I claimed Additional Costs Allowance against this property I, along with all the freeholders on the estate, paid for obligatory external paintwork to be done and

I also claimed for five new windows following a burglary at the flat.

"The cost of this work was approximately £3,000. I am advised that this capital work did not materially affect the sale value of the property.

"Over the last four years juggling family life in two locations 250 miles apart has been extremely difficult. It has not been easy achieving settled arrangements but at no stage have I sought to change addresses for capital gain or to avoid capital gains tax.

"I stopped claiming ACA against the constituency property in summer 2008 after we had started renovating it as I did not consider it appropriate to enhance a property for which the taxpayer paid the mortgage interest.

"No renovation work on this property was charged to my ACA. I have referred all my accommodation arrangements over the last four years to the new Scrutiny Panel for independent advice on the claims I have made."

Lembit on TV (again)

Lembit Opik is better known for appearing as a celebrity on TV rather than watching it.

But details of expense claims published by the Daily Telegraph today reveal he is also a fan of the gogglebox.

The Montgomeryshire MP (and star of numerous reality shows) tried to claim £2,499 for a 42-inch plasma television.

The claim was turned down - proof, says Mr Opik, that the system works.

He was re-imbursed £40 for a legal summons for non-payment of his council tax on his second home in south London.

The former Welsh Lib Dem leader says he's willing to pay back the claim.

Pedigree chump?

Meet Curby, the Lhasa Apso. If he looks well fed, thank you. You apparently paid for his grub.


Curby's owner, shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan, claimed £4.47 for dog food as part of her parliamentary expenses. She's now willing to pay the money back.

Her leader, David Cameron, has acknowledged that tomorrow will be a bad day for the Conservative Party: “We have to start by saying that the system we had and used was wrong and that we are sorry about that.”

Curby, alas, is no longer with us, having left for that great kennel in the sky.

MPs in hot water

If I had a pound for every time I've heard the phrase "it's all within the rules" then I'd probably be able to buy myself a decent TV with enough left over for a tin opener and a few light bulbs.

The Telegraph newspapers have given MPs an uncomfortable time during the last 72 hours, and there is more to come.

The focus so far has largely been on Labour Ministers. Paul Murphy's plumbing arrangements and Kevin Brennan's (second) home entertainment have made headlines.

Paul Murphy is widely-regarded as an honest self-effacing politician, about as likely to enrich himself at public expense as he is to seek a high profile.

He may prefer to get on with the job privately but a publicity-shy approach can bring its own problems. Will voters remember him for his role in the political process in Northern Ireland and Wales or as the man who billed the taxpayer for a £6 tin opener and £1.98 worth of lightbulbs?

Most voters understand that MPs do work in two places, even if the rules are so lax you can claim for a home that is neither in your constituency nor London. Most voters don't understand how MPs can apparently maximise their expenses by "flipping" their choice of first and second home.

Funnily enough, I suspect some voters will resent more the small claims (one MP was re-imbursed 5p for a carrier bag, Jacqui Smith's bathplug cost 88p) than the bigger amounts for accommodation.

The Welsh Assembly's presiding officer, Dafydd Elis-Thomas, whose overnight "subsistence" in the House of Lords last year totalled £497 for the 27 days he attended, told the BBC: "I just don't know what they thought they were doing, and that they thought they could ever get away with it."

Perhaps the regime was tighter during Lord Elis-Thomas's 18 years as an MP, all before the Fredom of Information Act.

My colleague Felicity Evans did point out that Assembly Members have had the odd problem with expenses involving iPods, trouser presses etc. (I think it was an AM who first claimed for a Remembrance Day wreath, a habit that has caught on with one Tory MP).

Lord Elis-Thomas pointed out that the claims were of a slightly smaller scale - and backed by receipts.

Sticky moment for Boris

An anecdote from the retiring Martyn Jones about his battle with Boris Johnson for the Clwyd South seat in 1997.

"Boris went to the Chirk car boot sale with one or two supporters and it just happened to be the same day as I went with about 20 supporters.

"He was walking about by himself and so we went over to say hello and we all patted him on the back - he didn't realise we were sticking Labour stickers on his back until afterwards - those little fun things that we do."

Anyone know what happened to Boris?

Some people, cynically, wondered if there is a link between the timing of Mr Jones's announcement and the imminent publication of details of MPs' expense claims.

He told us: "I have claimed on receipts ever since i got here. Would you believe i have subsidised my office costs , probably not but it's true. ... last month I had £342 left in my second home allowance to pay a rent bill alone that was £1745.40 - it is not adequate. ... the job is in two places and so we need another home."

Hanging up his bow tie?

His is one of the most distinctive bow ties seen at Westminster since the era of Robin Day.

But the word is that Martyn Jones's neckwear of choice is unlikely to be seen in the Commons after the next general election.

After 22 years as MP for Clwyd South, Mr Jones, who is 62, has apparently decided to call it a day. Expect an official announcement within the next 24 hours.

Besides his unusual taste in ties, he'll be remembered for his eight years as chairman of the Welsh affairs select committee, his campaigning on dormant accounts and Wrexham Lager.

Happy anniversary

It's a week of anniversaries, as you may have noticed, although the chances are you won't have spotted one political silver jubilee.

It's 25 years this week since the unlikely triumvirate of Ann Clwyd, Bill Cash and Virginia Bottomley arrived in the House of Commons via by-elections in the Cynon Valley, Staffordshire and Surrey.

"We have not had a celebratory drink together," confessed Ms Clwyd.

The Lawnmower Woman

I'm occasionally a bit slow on the uptake, so I missed this gem of a contribution from questions to the First Minister in the Welsh Assembly.

Eleanor Burnham, for it is she, chose to raise widespread concerns about traffic delays on major roads (caused by work to cut the mid-carriageway grass) in her own inimitable way:

"If there is to be any cutting of grass, can it not be done at night? Could the grass not be concreted over, so that there is no need for grass-cutting?"

Perhaps Eleanor is ahead of her time. It would certainly solve problems with the pitch at Wembley.

The idea has yet to become official Lib Dem policy, but you'll remember where you first heard it if and when it does.

All roads lead to Cardiff

Tonight sees the launch of the London branch of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, the brainchild of Lord Roberts of Llandudno.

I haven't seen the agenda but there's a rumour that item one may be education on devolution.

There's certainly scope for improvement, if this written exchange from the House of Lords is anything to go by:

Roads: A470
Question
Asked by Lord Roberts of Llandudno

To ask Her Majesty's Government what proposals they have to upgrade the A470 road.

Lord Davies of Oldham: The responsibility for trunk roads in Wales is devolved to the Welsh Assembly Government.

When you're in a hole....

One surreal week. Having managed to lose a vote on an opposition day debate (the first time a Government has managed that in 30 years) it was perhaps no surprise that Ministers ducked a confrontation on the issue of MPs' second homes.

It was a week, more than any other, when Gordon Brown was compared to John Major, with memories of Norman Lamont's "in office, but not in power" jibe stirred up by the self-inflicted wounds suffered by the current Prime Minister.

It would not be a total shock to discover Gordon Brown tucks his shirt into his underpants. The moment when the Speaker called the PM to make a statement, only for Mr Brown to try to leave the chamber, will be replayed as often on YouTube as last week's statement on expenses delivered to camera with occasional smiles.

The PM may hail the biggest changes to parliamentary expenses in 25 years, but that will count for nothing if some of the receipts to be issued in July are as incriminating as some MPs fear. The most controversial issue - the way MPs are compensated for having to live and work in two places - has not gone away.

Out in the real world, where voters are worried about swine flu and making ends meet, this week's economic news was not universally bleak, with mixed news about house prices and jobs.

It was pretty bleak if you're one of those being made redundant by JCB in Wrexham. Today's FT points out that the company's boss had called for wage subsidies but rejected direct help from the Welsh Assembly Government.

JCB say it couldn't make the WAG scheme work for them. No news yet on whether the company's latest cuts will make it unable to continue to provide helicopter and private plane travel for David Cameron.

One JCB employee appears to have survived the cull. Shadow Foreign Secretary (and former Secretary of State for Wales) William Hague is paid between £45,000-£50,000 as its parliamentary adviser, according to the Commons Register of Members' Interests.

Thanks to last night's Commons votes, we'll soon know precisely how much Mr Hague earns from JCB and what he does for it.

But when it comes to parliamentary advice you don't need a JCB driving licence to know that when you're in a hole, stop digging.

Today's newspapers report yet more disquiet among past and present Ministers about Gordon Brown's leadership.

But on current form, were Mr Brown to be handed the traditional whisky and pearl-handled revolver the only certain outcome would be a bullet in the metatarsal.