Friday, 20 November 2009

The first XI

I do enjoy these surveys of politicians by politicians. The joys of percentages mean small numbers of people can appear as hugely significant masses of opinion.

So Edwina Hart is the "top performer" chosen by 25 per cent of the 30 people sampled by the pollsters (I make that eight).

Lower down the popularity chain, Nick Bourne, Ieuan Wyn Jones and Jocelyn Davies have the support of four per cent - if my maths is correct that means two AMs each rated them.

The consolation for Professor Bourne, Mr Jones and Ms Davies is that they are twice as popular as Nick Ramsay and Jenny Randerson, who were named by two per cent of those asked - I make that one AM each.

The consolation for Mr Ramsay and Mrs Randerson is that still makes them more popular than 49 other AMs, who didn't make the IPSOS-Mori first eleven.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"Lower down the popularity chain, Nick Bourne, Ieuan Wyn Jones and Jocelyn Davies have the support of four per cent - if my maths is correct that means two AMs each rated them."

Not quite. The votes have been 'weighted' to reflect the fact that the sample is not representative of the parties' strength in the Assembly. Thus, a Lib Dem or a Tory vote is worth around 2%, a Plaid vote around 3.6%, and a Labour vote a whopping 4.8%. So Nick Bourne probably got two Tory votes, and Ieuan Wyn Jones and Jocelyn Davies each got 1 Plaid Cymru vote at twice the value.

And Carwyn and Huw probably got 1 Labour vote each, to Edwina's 5.

Isn't mathematics a wonderful thing?